Circle issued more stablecoin dollars in the third quarter than it did a year earlier and made less money on them.

Reserve income, the interest Circle collects on the short-dated Treasuries and cash backing USDC, its dollar-pegged token, fell 8% to $658m as the return rate on those reserves dropped 61 basis points to 3.5%. Average USDC in circulation over the quarter grew 8%, to $73.3bn. Period-end circulation of $73.9bn was flat against a year ago.

The GENIUS Act, the federal stablecoin regime, takes effect in January 2027, and this layer has been bought on the premise that regulation turns it into financial infrastructure whose economics compound with adoption. The quarter tests that premise at the unit level. What a dollar of USDC earns Circle is set by the policy rate and then split with the exchange that distributes it. What a dollar of loan volume earns Figure Technology Solutions, which runs a blockchain-recorded marketplace for consumer lending out of Reno, Nevada, is set in a contract, and that number has not moved.

Coinbase took about half the interest

Of $409m in distribution and transaction costs, $331m went to Coinbase, roughly half of all reserve income earned in the quarter. Coinbase receives all of the reserve income on USDC held on its own platform and half the residual on USDC circulating elsewhere, under terms renewed through 2029. On its own October call Coinbase said it holds about 30% of USDC on-platform and captures roughly half the economics, describing the arrangement as "coopetition". Circle's distribution bill rises with its distributors' success.

That leg nonetheless held up. Net reserve margin rose 70 basis points year on year to 37.8%, slipping 80 points sequentially on the Hyperliquid arrangement, under which Coinbase passes about 90% of the reserve income onward. Management said the fourth quarter absorbs a full quarter of both Hyperliquid and a renewed Binance deal, and guided margins lower.

Combine the two disclosures and Circle kept roughly 1.3 cents a year on each dollar of USDC, against about 1.5 cents a year earlier, a figure derived from the reported rate and margin rather than disclosed. The rate did that, not the distribution terms.

The $182m that made the quarter a beat

Headline revenue of $864.9m was up 16.9% and earnings of $0.84 a share doubled the $0.42 consensus, but $182m of the $207m in other revenue was a one-time presale of tokens for Arc, Circle's new chain. Full-year other revenue is guided to $310–330m, of which core products account for $130–150m: about 4–5% of the $3.01bn consensus top line. Circle also disclosed a 5% workforce reduction, roughly 55 positions and $9.1m of restructuring expense, in a footnote rather than in its commentary. JP Morgan's Mike Colonnese cut his target to $100 from $104, Needham's John Todaro to $103 from $134.

Chief executive Jeremy Allaire was explicit that he is not defending revenue per dollar moved. "When this achieves scale, it's going to have enormous velocity and the unit costs are going to be much, much lower," he told investors on 4 November. "We are not shooting to let's go repeat the margin structure of the existing payments industry." On-chain USDC transaction volume grew 49% to $13.9 trillion in the quarter.

At $67.88 Circle trades at 58.5x this year's consensus earnings of $1.16, above its 36.5x trailing: consensus has reported earnings falling. On trailing gross profit it is at 24.2x against Coinbase's 8.1x, three times its closest listed peer after a 74% fall from its high.

Figure's take rate stayed inside the band it guided

Figure's third-quarter marketplace volume was $5.12bn, up 107% year on year and 20% sequentially, at the high end of its own $4.8–5.2bn range, before any contribution from Kiavi. The per-unit economics did not narrow as volume compounded: net take rate was 3.6% in the second quarter, inside the 3.5–4.0% guided range. What changed is the mix. Ecosystem and technology fees became the largest contributor to adjusted net revenue for the first time, and partner-branded gain-on-sale revenue grew 35.0% while partner-branded volume rose 151%, because partners are moving onto fee-based terms. Gross margin has fallen from 93.5% to 80.1% over four quarters on that shift, with revenue close to double.

The caveats are in the balance sheet. Figure bought Kiavi on 1 September for about $590m net of cash, funded with $600m of 8.5% senior notes, and trailing free cash flow runs deeply negative because loans held for sale consume cash before they are sold. Figure trades at 19.8x this year's consensus earnings against 25.8x trailing, with consensus earnings growth of 74%, and at 15.5x trailing enterprise value to EBITDA, the measure that now has to carry the notes.

Coin prices and a dead bill, not unit economics

Circle's results account for part of its mark-down: the core line is shrinking on a float that stopped growing, and the beat came from a token sale that does not recur. For Figure they account for none of it. The shares closed at an all-time low of $20.90 on 5 November, 69% below their high, with volume accelerating and results a week away.

The better explanation is the asset class and the statute book. Bitcoin fell about 6% to $75,700 and Ether to $2,247 on 5 November, triggering $1.09bn of liquidations, and the CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill meant to re-rate this layer, failed a Senate procedural vote 49 to 50 on 15 September. Over 30 days Circle fell 15.5% and Figure 18.8%, both less than Coinbase's 24.8%, and the levered coin-treasury vehicles in the same segment averaged 21.7%: the operating businesses were marked down at least as hard as the holding companies.

The rate input, meanwhile, has turned. The Federal Reserve raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, its first increase since 2023, and held there in October with two governors dissenting for more. Circle's 3.5% reserve rate is last year's cuts washing through a short book. Its constraint is share: USDC's slice of the stablecoin market has fallen from 34.9% to 23.1% in two years while Tether's USDT sits at $183.4bn.

Figure reports on 12 November, with Kiavi's first partial month and the interest on the notes that bought it both landing in the same statement. The line to read is the one Circle cannot set for itself.