A unanimous federal appeals panel ruled on 25 September that Ohio and Tennessee may apply their gambling laws to Kalshi's sports event contracts, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive jurisdiction over them. It was the second appellate defeat in nine days for the exchanges that licensed sportsbooks blame for their September collapse, and the shares that stood to gain barely responded: DraftKings closed up 3.5%, Rush Street Interactive 1.7%, Flutter 1.6%, after intraday quotes of more than 7% and 6% for the first two.

Rush Street Interactive — the BetRivers brand in the United States and Latin America, majority online casino rather than sports betting — is the worst thirty-day performer among the four listed online gambling operators, down 23% and 42% below its one-year high. Its business is moving the other way. Revenue growth has accelerated for four consecutive quarters, to 46.3% in the June quarter, and operating margin has widened from 7.0% to 11.7% across the same span. What is at issue is whether September repriced sportsbook economics or a label.

One session did it

The decline was a single event rather than a drift. All four were flat or rising into 17 September — DraftKings' 50-day average was still above its 200-day — and all four gapped down together the next session: Rush Street 10.5%, DraftKings 9.3%, Flutter 8.4%, Super Group 5.5%. The trigger was Needham data showing Kalshi took 76% of NFL Week 1 prediction-market volume against roughly 3% for DraftKings' own exchange. Rush Street's whole thirty-day loss happened in the six sessions from that gap.

Both halves of the case have since weakened. Needham's adjusted read on 25 September put Kalshi's Week 1 share at 67%, not the 76% first reported, after estimating $2.1bn of consumer-equivalent handle and stripping out professional traders. The Ninth Circuit held on 16 September that two California tribes were likely to prevail against event contracts on tribal lands, and the Sixth Circuit panel wrote that "we conclude that Kalshi's contracts do not depend on events that are 'associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence' within the meaning of the statute." The Third Circuit holds such state enforcement pre-empted; the split is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court.

The one whose numbers improved

Nothing in Rush Street's reporting deteriorated. June-quarter operating income of $46.2m rose 90% year on year, roughly twice the pace of revenue, with Latin American revenue up 195%. Consensus has 2026 revenue at $1.59bn and EBITDA up 45% to $233m — the only one of the four whose forward estimates still embed acceleration. Stifel's Jeffrey Stantial initiated coverage in September at $34, calling it the only listed US-focused online-casino-led pure play and citing "scarcity value" and lower disruption risk from prediction markets. It is also the dearest name here: 64.7x trailing earnings compressing to 32.1x forward, and 8.86x forward gross profit. Coverage of the fall points to sector-wide pressure and recent insider sales, not an operating miss.

Where the de-rating is earned

DraftKings, which runs mobile and retail sportsbooks in 18 states plus its own online casino brands, has a paper trail. June-quarter revenue fell 4.6% to $1.443bn and gross profit fell 16.2% to $551m, turning a $151m operating profit into a $68m loss. The filing names the cause: sports net revenue margin, the share of wagers the book keeps, fell to 6.8% from 8.7% while sports volume grew to $13.1bn, which the company attributed to customer-friendly outcomes and heavier promotions, including on its prediction-markets product. Taxes finish the job and they do not reverse: New Jersey has raised its online sports betting rate from 14.25% to about 21%, Louisiana to 21.5%, Maryland to 20%. At $22.02 the stock trades at 4.03x forward gross profit against 4.33x trailing, with chief executive Jason Robins telling a Wells Fargo conference on 22 September that handle was up 15% through NFL Week 2 and the roughly $1bn adjusted-EBITDA target for 2026 intact.

Flutter, owner of FanDuel alongside Paddy Power, Sky Betting & Gaming, PokerStars, Sisal and Sportsbet, is further along. June-quarter revenue growth slowed to 3.3% from 17.4% a quarter earlier, gross profit fell 12.6%, and a $389m operating profit became a $144m loss. August's cut took full-year revenue down about $395m to $17.91bn and adjusted EBITDA down about $210m to $2.655bn, with US profit guidance cut 22% and chief executive Peter Jackson replaced by Dan Taylor on 1 October. Rothschild & Co downgraded the shares to Neutral on 21 September, calling it the fourth consecutive guidance cut of the year and noting Illinois volumes down about 15%. Consensus 2026 earnings of $4.77 a share are 37% below the $7.59 that 2025 delivered, which is why 17.4x forward earnings means less than it looks.

Super Group, which runs the Betway sportsbook and Spin casino from Guernsey and has completed a full exit from the United States, earns a 25% operating margin and trades at 16.9x trailing earnings. It has no American handle, no state gaming tax and no exchange competitor. It fell 13.5% over the same thirty days.

The verdict

The twelve-month de-rating and the six-session one are different trades. The group's average 34% decline over a year hides DraftKings at -49% and Flutter at -70% against 8% falls at Rush Street and Super Group, and at the two big sportsbooks the business supports the price: hold diluted by promotional spending, a tax line legislatures keep ratcheting, estimates cut four times at Flutter. September did something else. It took a quarter off an online casino operator with expanding margins and a tenth off an operator with no US exposure, on exchange volume figures that have since been revised down and a legal docket that has now gone against the exchanges twice.

Kalshi can appeal a circuit split. Nobody appeals a tax rate — New Jersey's move to roughly 21% sits in DraftKings' cost line for good, whatever the Supreme Court eventually decides about football contracts.