Centrus Energy exists to enrich uranium. In the three months to June it did less of that than a year earlier — separative work unit (SWU) volumes fell 23% — and still reported revenue growth of 14%, to $176.1m, because it resold more natural uranium to utilities at slimmer margins. Enrichment pricing rose 3% over the year. Cost of sales in the low-enriched uranium (LEU) segment rose 36%. Gross margin fell to 28.3% from 34.9%, gross profit fell 7.4% to $49.9m, and operating income fell 69% to $10.4m.

That matters because the entire re-rating of this corner of the market rests on a physical bottleneck. Enrichment sells for roughly $160 per SWU today against about $40 before 2022, a 167% rise driven by a US ban on Russian enriched uranium that becomes a full prohibition in 2028 — against a Western capacity base that cannot meaningfully expand before then. Centrus, headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, is the only US-owned commercial enricher and the only listed pure play on that squeeze. Its backlog now stands at $4.5bn stretching to 2040, of which $3.7bn is enrichment and uranium sales and $2.4bn sits under definitive agreements rather than contingent terms. A $900m Department of Energy task order is excluded from that figure.

The backlog is real. The earnings are going the other way. Consensus has Centrus earning $2.50 a share this year against $3.90 delivered in 2025, and the capital to build the Piketon, Ohio, plant is coming partly from shareholders: diluted shares have gone from 16.4m to 21.9m in eight quarters, roughly 33% dilution, with $53.9m raised through the at-the-market program last quarter alone. Capex guidance of $350-500m for 2026 brackets the revenue guidance of $450-500m. Free cash flow yield is -6.3%.

The month belonged to the pounds, not the reactors

From 22 July to 21 August the gains ran through the miners. Uranium Energy Corp, a US developer that booked no revenue at all last quarter against a $40.8m operating loss, rose 22.5%. Cameco, the world's largest listed uranium producer, rose 13.4%. Centrus rose 6.9%. The two pre-revenue reactor developers did not participate: NuScale Power, whose small modular design is the only one with US regulatory certification, gained 7.3% on quarterly revenue that fell to $75,000 from $8.05m; Oklo, developer of the Aurora powerhouse, fell 4.7% despite holding $3bn of cash.

This was not a discount-rate rally either. The 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.33% on 18 August, a 19-year high. Three days later, at the Global 2026 conference, Urenco USA said it would expand American enrichment capacity by nearly 50% with a new plant, and Ur-Energy shipped its first uranium from Shirley Basin. Cameco closed up 7.24% that session, Centrus up 5.75% — Centrus rising, notably, on news that its scarcity is being addressed by a competitor. Spot uranium was $88.29 a pound on 20 August, little changed since February, while the long-term contract price reached $90 in the first quarter, its highest since 2008.

Cameco got more expensive as it earned less

Cameco's second quarter went backwards. Revenue fell 7.2% to $814.1m, gross margin fell to 21.1% from 29.3%, and gross profit fell a third. The swing factor was Westinghouse Electric, 49%-owned by Cameco, which reported a $10m net loss on Cameco's share against $126m of earnings a year earlier; Westinghouse has confidentially filed for a US listing. Production guidance of 19.5-21.5 million pounds was left intact.

The price paid for that stream has widened. Cameco costs 64.2x trailing gross profit today against 60.3x in May, having fallen from 72.0x in February — the multiple re-expanded over three months while the profit underneath it shrank. Forward earnings multiple: 66.4x.

BWX Technologies is the reverse. It builds the US Navy's nuclear reactors and fuel on a sole-source basis and makes commercial reactor vessels and TRISO fuel. Revenue grew 18% to $901.6m, backlog reached $8.4bn, up 40%, and on 3 August it raised every 2026 guidance line, including adjusted earnings to $4.70-4.80 a share. The shares fell 10.5% over the month to a 52-week low. Its price per dollar of trailing gross profit has compressed from 25.9x in February to 18.5x — a 28% de-rating while that gross profit grew 6%.

Cameco and BWXT have both traded with their 50-day average below their 200-day since early July. Centrus emerged from that condition on 12 August. On the numbers, the ranking is inverted: the cheapest business is the one growing fastest.

The setup

Where it stands — Enrichment scarcity is being priced into Centrus and Cameco while the only member with rising backlog and raised guidance, BWXT, sits at a 52-week low. Would confirm — Centrus third-quarter SWU volumes returning to growth with enrichment pricing up more than 3% year over year. Would invalidate — Centrus 2026 revenue landing below the $450m guidance floor, or Cameco cutting its 19.5-21.5 million pound production range. Watch next — Centrus and Cameco third-quarter results, early November; the Westinghouse listing terms whenever the S-1 goes public. Valuation — Centrus at 32.0x trailing and 32.5x forward gross profit, versus 32.9x in February; Cameco 64.2x, BWXT 18.5x.