Three quarters, three different businesses

In the first week of August the three largest listed quantum-computing companies reported June quarters that had almost nothing in common. IonQ, a trapped-ion computer maker in College Park, Maryland that sells machine time through Amazon's Braket and Microsoft's Azure Quantum, booked revenue of $80.05m — nearly four times the year-earlier figure — and raised full-year guidance to $280m-$290m. Rigetti Computing, a 163-person builder that fabricates its own superconducting processors, grew revenue 183% to $5.14m. D-Wave Quantum, which sells quantum annealers, a narrower class of machine built for optimization problems rather than general computation, reported $3.08m, marginally below the prior year.

The divergence runs deeper than the growth rates. IonQ's expansion came from shipping boxes: gross margin fell to 24.9% from 56.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Management said 60% of the quarter's revenue was non-government and half was international, and reported remaining performance obligations of $485m against $122m a year earlier. Rigetti was the only one of the group whose margin improved, to 42.6% from 31.4%, on sales of its Novera on-premises processors — but its 2025 revenue of $7.09m was 34% below 2024, so the base is not yet compounding.

D-Wave's number is the one that needs explaining. Its recurring cloud-subscription line grew 50% to $1.9m, but first-half revenue fell 67% because the prior-year half contained $13.7m from the company's first outright system sale. Bookings of $35.5m for the half look spectacular until you remove the $20m agreement signed in January with Florida Atlantic University for a single Advantage2 machine. Second-quarter bookings alone were $2.1m. Adjusted losses before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization widened 85%, to -$37.1m.

What the forward multiples assume

All three are loss-making, so earnings multiples are meaningless; sales and gross profit are the honest lenses. D-Wave trades at 571 times trailing sales and 165 times forward sales. That compression is not a business improving — it is the estimate assuming two unshipped annealers land by December at $20m-$40m apiece. Rigetti's 423 times trailing falls to 239 times forward only if it books $14.1m in the second half, roughly 60% of which is a single $8.4m order for a 108-qubit system from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, recognized on installation and acceptance.

IonQ is the cheapest of the three on sales, at 65.7 times trailing and 55.9 times forward. On gross profit it is 181 times trailing and 154 times forward. The gap between those two ratios is the arithmetic price of a 25% margin.

The cost of the cash

None of these companies funds itself from operations, and the share counts show it. IonQ's diluted count rose 46.5% year on year to 367.7m, before roughly 24m more shares went out to close its $1.8bn purchase of SkyWater Technology, the only US quantum foundry running at 200mm scale. Its $3.0bn of cash and investments falls to about $2.0bn after that deal — near $5.10 a share, or 12% of the equity value.

D-Wave's diluted count rose 25.9%; it holds $546.2m, about $1.47 a share, after a $400m at-the-market offering last June that followed a $150m one in January 2025. Rigetti holds $541.3m with no debt and burned about $28m in the quarter — a long runway, but $1.62 of cash per share against a $17.00 price. Quantum Computing Inc., which draws 70%-80% of revenue from government subcontracting, is the odd one out: roughly 64% of its $2.02bn market value is cash, and it trades at 1.27 times book, yet its June-quarter gross margin was negative and its share count rose 58.9%.

Washington became the marginal funder

In May the Commerce Department announced $2.013bn of letters of intent with nine quantum companies — IBM, GlobalFoundries, D-Wave, Rigetti, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum, Atom Computing and Diraq — taking a minority equity stake in each as a condition of the money. Rigetti's slice runs to $100m over three years, and the terms contemplate issuing the government new shares priced at the lowest close on three specified dates, discounted a further 15%. IonQ and Quantum Computing Inc. are not on the list. Separately, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency advanced 11 firms to Stage B of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, IonQ among them; Rigetti says its qualification is still in progress.

The shares, briefly

From 20 July to 19 August, Infleqtion — which listed in February through a merger with Churchill Capital X and took in more than $550m — rose 38.1%, IonQ 26.6%, Rigetti 19.3%, D-Wave 15.6% and Quantum Computing Inc. 6.3%. The gains were not a grind: two sessions around IonQ's 5 August print delivered roughly 19 of its 26.6 points. All four of the older names remain below their 31 December closes, D-Wave by 26.1%. And the advance happened while the 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.33%, a 19-year high — the longest-duration equities in technology rising straight through a discount-rate shock.

The setup

Where it stands — A partial repair of a year-long drawdown, with three businesses whose revenue engines have almost nothing in common. Would confirm — D-Wave shipping both annealing systems by December and Rigetti's $8.4m C-DAC installation being accepted in the fourth quarter. Would invalidate — A third straight D-Wave quarter near $3.1m, or a fresh at-the-market equity program at any of the three. Watch next — IonQ's investor day at the New York Stock Exchange on 8 September, when combined IonQ-SkyWater guidance is expected. Valuation — D-Wave 571x trailing sales, 165x forward; Rigetti 423x and 239x; IonQ 65.7x and 55.9x, or 154x forward gross profit.