DK Street Journal

Digital Realty Repriced Its Big Leases 67% Higher, and Two Sessions Carried the Stock

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.4

Digital Realty and Equinix, the two largest landlords of the buildings that house cloud and artificial-intelligence computing, both raised guidance in late July on the strongest leasing quarters either has reported. The tension is in how the shares got their gain: strip each name's two best sessions out of the past month and Digital Realty's 13.8% advance shrinks to about 1%, while Equinix's turns slightly negative.

The operating numbers are not the weak link. Digital Realty renewed leases above one megawatt at cash rents 66.7% higher and carries a record $1.9bn of signed annualized rent in backlog. Equinix's revenue growth accelerated to 16.4% year on year with operating margin at 25.3%, and it called the raise the largest in its history.

What is unsettled is the cost side. Equinix is doubling capital spending and guided its blended cost of capital up roughly 150 basis points; Digital Realty's share count grew 4.6%.

DLREQIXPLDOSPGAMTIRMCCIGDSAPLD
TickerCompanySegmentTrend · 13mo30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
DLRDigital Realty TrustData Center & Colocation🟢 Cont. Bull+12.3%+22.6%
EQIXEquinixData Center & Colocation🌱 Emerging Bull+7.9%+45.1%
Compared against · context, not the story
PLDPrologisLogistics & Distribution🟢 Cont. Bull−5.0%+36.1%
ORealty IncomeNet Lease Retail🟢 Cont. Bull−4.2%+12.4%
SPGSimon PropertyOpen-Air Shopping Centers🟢 Cont. Bull−3.3%+32.4%
AMTAmerican TowerWireless & Fiber Infrastructure🔴 Cont. Bear+4.0%−12.0%
IRMIron Mountain IncorporatedRecords & Information Management🟢 Cont. Bull+3.1%+45.0%
CCICrown CastleWireless & Fiber Infrastructure🔴 Cont. Bear−4.2%−22.8%
GDSGDSData Center & Cloud Infrastructure⚠️ Emerging Bear+9.8%+9.8%
APLDApplied DigitalData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🟢 Cont. Bull+12.0%+90.9%

12-month price & trend

DLR
Digital Realty Trust
198
−2.24 (−1.12%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DLR 12-month price
Data Center & Colocation
EQIX
Equinix
1,098
−4.49 (−0.41%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
EQIX 12-month price
Data Center & Colocation
PLD
Prologis
140
−0.99 (−0.70%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
PLD 12-month price
Logistics & Distribution
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
DLR$73.2B91.2x75.6x10.7x10.4x77.7x75.7x26.3x1.9%
EQIX$108.3B70.4x63.8x11.0x10.6x21.4x20.4x29.1x1.3%
PLD$131.0B35.2x42.1x14.6x15.1x33.8x34.7x21.4x3.8%
O
Realty Income
62.47
−0.27 (−0.43%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
O 12-month price
Net Lease Retail
SPG
Simon Property
221
+0.97 (+0.44%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SPG 12-month price
Open-Air Shopping Centers
AMT
American Tower
174
−1.76 (−1.01%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
AMT 12-month price
Wireless & Fiber Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
O$57.0B49.4x37.1x9.6x10.0x14.0x14.6x20.8x7.1%
SPG$65.0B13.8x30.3x9.8x10.0x11.5x11.7x12.1x5.0%
AMT$80.4B23.7x25.1x7.3x7.3x10.0x10.0x17.6x4.9%
IRM
Iron Mountain Incorporated
128
−1.33 (−1.03%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
IRM 12-month price
Records & Information Management
CCI
Crown Castle
74.89
−1.09 (−1.43%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CCI 12-month price
Wireless & Fiber Infrastructure
GDS
GDS
35.39
+0.98 (+2.85%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GDS 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
IRM$36.0B86.5x50.4x4.8x4.5x8.8x8.3x15.8x-1.8%
CCI$33.0B30.6x38.2x7.9x8.2x12.6x12.9x20.4x7.3%
GDS$6.7B16.6x3.8x14.9x14.2x-2.9%
APLD
Applied Digital
31.19
−0.01 (−0.03%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
APLD 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
APLD$9.0Bn/m15.6x10.9x69.6x48.8xn/m-30.9%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
DLRRevenue+16.0%+11.1%+14.1%
EPS−28.5%−3.7%+25.8%
EQIXRevenue+11.0%+10.7%+11.2%
EPS+16.6%+9.5%+9.5%
PLDRevenue+6.7%+6.3%+2.8%
EPS+21.3%+12.3%+8.1%
ORevenue+7.5%+6.2%+7.9%
EPS+36.5%+8.7%+2.9%
SPGRevenue+12.9%+3.2%+1.4%
EPS−4.8%+3.8%+9.0%
AMTRevenue+4.0%+3.3%+5.9%
EPS+34.5%+1.4%+10.5%
IRMRevenue+16.2%+8.8%+7.7%
EPS+20.1%+9.3%+16.4%
CCIRevenue−5.0%+1.3%+2.3%
EPS+112.8%+44.5%+5.5%
GDSRevenue+11.2%+11.0%+18.0%
EPS−13.3%−75.5%+48.9%
APLDRevenue+98.7%+92.4%+149.3%
EPS−24.3%+6.9%−104.0%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

When Digital Realty's largest expiring leases came due this spring, the landlord re-signed them at cash rents 66.7% higher. Across its whole renewal book the blended cash mark-to-market was a record above 25%, and management lifted full-year renewal-spread guidance by 250 basis points to 9-11% (Q2 2026 results). Digital Realty owns 309 data centers and rents entire halls to cloud and enterprise tenants on long leases — about 3.0 gigawatts of information-technology capacity in service, another 6.3 gigawatts buildable. Revenue rose 29% year on year in the June quarter, to $1.9bn, and operating income more than doubled.

Equinix sells the other half of the market: space by the cabinet, and more profitably the cross-connects that link tenants to one another inside its metro campuses. Its revenue growth has accelerated across four straight quarters, from 5.2% year on year to 16.4%. Operating margin widened over the same stretch from 20.5% to 25.3%. Adjusted funds from operations per share — the cash measure real-estate investors use in place of earnings — rose 18%, and the company added a record 9,700 net interconnections. On 29 July it raised both 2026 guidance and its long-term outlook, calling it the largest raise in company history. CoStar reported both landlords lifting outlooks on higher leasing volume and pricing.

Two days, not a month

The shares did not move with the rest of real estate. Over the 30 sessions to 17 August, Digital Realty gained 13.8% and Equinix 7.6% while Prologis fell 6.5%, Realty Income 4.9% and Simon Property 3.6%. That rules out the easy explanation: the 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.70%, close to a 19-month high, so nothing about falling rates was lifting landlords. But the advance was not a grind either. Remove each name's two best days and Digital Realty is left with 1.1% and Equinix with minus 0.8%. One of those days was Digital Realty's 8.3% post-earnings gap. The other was 4 August, when both rose about 4% on three to four times normal volume as Prologis fell 3.5%.

Higher price, cheaper multiple

The unusual part is that three months of gains have been paid for by the revenue base rather than by rerating. Digital Realty trades at 10.69x trailing sales against 11.14x in May, when the stock was lower; Equinix at 11.02x against 11.17x. Reported earnings multiples are meaningless here — property depreciation buries net income, leaving Digital Realty at 91x trailing. On the cash measure, Digital Realty sits near 24.2x the midpoint of its raised core funds-from-operations guidance of $8.15-$8.20 a share, above the roughly 22x an outside valuation used in May. Equinix is near 25.5x guided 2026 AFFO, the bottom of the 25-30x forward range it has historically commanded. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 26.3x and 29.1x, with free-cash-flow yields of 1.86% and 1.26% — these are developers, not cash cows.

What the rent numbers don't settle

Digital Realty's under-construction pipeline has doubled since January to $20bn, covering 1.4 gigawatts that is 63% pre-leased at an 11.5% stabilized yield on cost. That spread is wide against build costs now running about $11.3m per megawatt globally, and $15-20m for AI-optimized halls, with cost per square foot climbing to roughly $960 from $630 a year earlier. Some of it is being funded with stock: diluted shares rose 4.6% year on year on the Blackstone, Columbia Capital and Teraco deals. Core FFO per share still grew 14%.

Equinix has the opposite profile. Its share count grew 1.1%, but its capital is getting dearer — capex doubling to $5-6bn this year and $5-7bn annually through 2029, leverage rising a full turn to about 4.6x, and blended cost of capital guided up roughly 150 basis points. Against that it reports 27% cash-on-cash yields on growth capital, stabilized assets 82% utilized and churn at 1.8%, the low end of its range. It says it has no revenue concentration, a structural contrast with Digital Realty's concentrated hyperscale tenants.

Analysts do not model the current pace continuing. Consensus has Digital Realty revenue up 16.0% this year and 11.1% next, against the 28.9% just reported; Equinix up 11.0% and 10.7%, the low end of management's own 10-13% frame. Both stocks sit within 3% of their 52-week highs. The demand case rests on power: JLL cites Goldman Sachs projecting US data-center demand rising from 31 gigawatts in 2025 to 66 gigawatts in 2027.

The setup

Where it stands — Record leasing and raised guidance at both landlords, but a month's gain compressed into two trading sessions each. Would confirm — Digital Realty holding cash renewal spreads above the raised 9-11% guide in the September quarter. Would invalidate — Stabilized yield on cost slipping below 11.5% as power and construction costs reprice the pipeline. Watch next — Third-quarter results in late October, with Equinix's stated 45%-plus of its Q3 bookings target already booked. Valuation — Digital Realty near 24.2x guided core FFO versus ~22x in May; Equinix near 25.5x AFFO, bottom of its 25-30x range.

Sources (44)

Also checked against 18 company-fundamentals reads, 12 price-database queries, 3 research notes, 1 source document, 1 prior recommendation in the author's own data.

Originating hypothesis

category gradual advance with intra cohort leasing model divergence · category: Real Estate > REIT - Specialty > Data Center & Colocation

The universe segment "Real Estate > REIT - Specialty > Data Center & Colocation" (DLR and EQIX, both starred) is the one rung of the AI buildout this desk has never examined after briefs on the accelerators, memory, optics, EMS boxes, in-rack power, grid hardware and the software on top — the landlord that is paid a rent per kilowatt of leased critical load rather than a price per chip — and it is this loop's cleanest still-gradual advance rather than a finished move: the pair is up 11.0% over the past 30 days at genuinely gradual intensity on a +34.9% twelve-month reading the snapshot tags still bullish, with neither name anywhere in the 1m/3m/6m/12m mover lists and neither appearing in any band-transition or streak table on any horizon; yet the two are not the same business — Equinix is a retail-colocation and interconnection operator whose margin comes from cross-connects and network density inside metro campuses, and which spent 2025 being punished for a multi-year capex step-up, while Digital Realty is a wholesale hyperscale developer letting whole halls on long leases to a concentrated set of cloud tenants, funding it through JVs and a development pipeline — so the question is whether AI demand is producing validatable rent economics with real runway from CURRENT prices (leasing bookings and backlog, renewal spreads on cash rent per kW, stabilized yield-on-cost versus rising construction and power costs, tenant concentration and lease duration, AFFO per share growth against equity issuance and JV dilution, interest expense as debt reprices), or whether an 11% month is a rate-cut-driven REIT rerating doing the arithmetic for two landlords whose per-share cash flow is being diluted by the very capex the buildout requires.