Gilat Satellite Networks, an Israeli maker of the ground half of satellite systems — antennas, modems, amplifiers and the software that ties a network together — reported June-quarter revenue of $122.7m, up 17% on a year earlier, reiterated full-year guidance of $500–520m and disclosed $43m of additional orders for its Sidewinder electronically steered antennas from an in-flight connectivity provider, plus $11m from the US Department of War. It is the only profitable company among the listed satellite and broadband names. Since mid-May its shares are down about 26%.

Money inside the same industry went somewhere else entirely.

What the market paid for instead

Telesat, an Ottawa operator running fourteen geostationary satellites while it builds the Lightspeed low-Earth-orbit constellation, saw revenue fall 25% year on year to $79.5m — the third consecutive quarter of roughly that magnitude. On 4 August it won a C$2.3bn Arctic military satellite communications contract, the largest in its six-decade history, and the shares rose 36% in a session. The contract funds a 69-satellite expansion but pays service revenue from 2028; Telesat simultaneously raised planned 2026 Lightspeed spending by $300m to $1.3–1.5bn, against $1.7bn of geostationary debt maturing in December. The equity is worth roughly $700m. It is an option on refinancing.

AST SpaceMobile, a Texas builder of satellites that connect directly to ordinary unmodified phones, doubled revenue sequentially to $31.5m and now has thirteen spacecraft in orbit against a target of about 45 by early 2027. The operating loss widened to $297.6m, consensus models a $464m net loss this year, and the stock trades at 236.7x trailing sales. That is down from roughly 500x in May, which is the honest way to put it: the multiple has compressed and remains extreme.

Viasat, the Carlsbad multi-orbit operator, is genuinely moving in two directions. Revenue slipped 1.2% to $1.157bn. Defense and Advanced Technologies awards rose 22% to $524m and total backlog rose 19% to $4.2bn after it won the next phase of the Protected Tactical SATCOM-Global program. Meanwhile fixed consumer broadband revenue fell 27%, to a base of 115,000 subscribers paying $111 a month. Net debt is 3.2x EBITDA, down from 3.6x, and free cash flow was $72m in the quarter.

The mechanism is capacity, and it is arriving

What connects these is cheap low-orbit bandwidth landing on incumbents built for scarcity. EchoStar's Hughes unit filed for Chapter 11 on 3 August after failing to repay $1.5bn of bonds, citing competition from low-earth-orbit providers; it serves about 622,000 broadband homes. Sentiment for the whole complex now also runs through SpaceX's own listed stock, which fell to an all-time low around $108 ahead of its first lockup expiry on 6 August, when the public float more than doubled.

Gilat sits outside that. It owns no spacecraft and is paid per terminal, modem and defense order — including by the constellations themselves. Its $157.5m purchase of Comtech's satellite and space communications business, agreed in June and awaiting antitrust and Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States clearance, would lift military work from a quarter of revenue to over 40%.

The counterweight is real: operating income fell 31% to $3.9m and operating margin compressed to 3.2% from 5.4%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 31% to $15.4m, so the two measures disagree, and the disagreement is integration cost. Gilat is buying growth. At 23.6x trailing and 17.3x forward earnings, and 12.6x trailing EV/EBITDA, the shares price consensus 2026 earnings per share of $0.63 against $0.34 reported for 2025 — nearly a doubling. Viasat, on the lens its leverage demands, trades at 8.74x trailing EV/EBITDA with a 5.5% free-cash-flow yield.

The month was four sessions

The group's roughly 21% gain over the thirty days to 17 August looks like a steady recovery and is not one. Strip each name's two best sessions and the average turns negative, near -4%: Telesat -5.8%, Gilat -10.6%, Viasat -0.5%, with only AST SpaceMobile still positive. Over three months the same names are down about 12%, and Gilat's fifty-day average remains below its two-hundred-day. On 18 August every member fell between 3.9% and 8.7% in one session with no company news attached.

The setup

Where it stands — Gilat is the only profitable satellite name in the group and the worst performer of it over three months. Would confirm — Full-year revenue tracking to the reiterated $500–520m with operating margin recovering above 5%. Would invalidate — Guidance cut, or the Comtech deal failing US regulatory clearance before year-end. Watch next — Third-quarter results in November, and Telesat's December geostationary debt maturity. Valuation — 17.3x forward earnings against 23.6x trailing and 12.6x trailing EV/EBITDA.