The chipmakers that supply power switches, sensors and microcontrollers to carmakers and factory-automation customers spent July falling. The trigger came from a different aisle of the industry. A reduced earnings forecast from the memory maker SK Hynix and a broad reassessment of artificial-intelligence spending produced the worst month for semiconductor shares in more than a decade, and analog chipmakers went down with everything else.

What makes that awkward is the direction of the underlying squeeze. Memory manufacturers have shifted more than 80% of advanced capacity toward high-bandwidth and server memory, and the resulting scarcity has spread into analog and power chips and long-life automotive parts. For most of this group, tight capacity has meant longer lead times, firmer prices and rising utilization.

The order books

Microchip Technology, which sells microcontrollers and analog parts into cars, factories and aerospace from Chandler, Arizona, reported June-quarter revenue of $1.485bn, up 38% from a year earlier. Gross margin recovered to 63.2% from 53.6%. Management said bookings were the strongest in about four years, that distributor inventory had normalized to 25 days — the low end of its historical range — and that its mid-August price increases were "one and done," recovering roughly six months of absorbed foundry and packaging cost inflation rather than starting a cadence. It guided the September quarter up 8% sequentially.

NXP Semiconductors, the Dutch maker of automotive and industrial processors and connectivity chips, grew revenue 19.5% to $3.50bn, with operating margin at 30.6% against 23.5% a year earlier. Its industrial and internet-of-things segment grew 38%, to $755m. Management told investors that orders exceed shipments, that backlog signals now extend 18 months out, and that it sees no evidence of customers pulling forward inventory. Pricing was described as neutral — increases taken only to offset packaging and precious-metal costs.

Onsemi, the Phoenix supplier of power switching, silicon carbide and image sensors, lifted factory utilization to 83% from 77% in a single quarter and extended lead times to 32 weeks from 27. Channel inventory fell to 10.1 weeks.

Texas Instruments, the largest of the group, grew revenue 22.8% to $5.46bn, with industrial up 30% and data-center revenue doubling. Its lead times remain under 13 weeks while it points to competitors quoting 52 — which it frames as a chance to take share. STMicroelectronics guided third-quarter revenue to $3.70bn with gross margin improving to 37%, on industrial revenue up 34%. Diodes, a maker of discrete and power components, guided to roughly 30% year-over-year growth. Monolithic Power, which sells power-management chips into AI servers, grew 47.6% and raised its full-year floor for enterprise-data growth to 130% from 85%.

What the trend measures are actually describing

Eleven of the fourteen set their 52-week highs between 26 May and 22 June — one synchronized peak, not staggered single-name breaks. Every member then bottomed between 14 July and 5 August, and twelve of the fourteen have risen since the start of August. The moving-average signals that turned negative for Microchip, NXP and onsemi in the week to 14 August are lagging arithmetic catching up with July. Microchip's flipped on 11 August — four sessions after the shares jumped about 14% in a day on earnings, and its 17 August close was still above the pre-earnings level.

Where price and business disagree

NXP is the widest gap. Down about 20% over three months, it trades at 15.4x forward earnings against 19.8x trailing, on 4.1x forward sales, with a trailing free-cash-flow yield of 5.0% — the cheapest large company here on both earnings and cash, on record revenue.

Microchip sits at 25.1x forward earnings; its trailing multiple above 100x reflects trough profits and means little. Consensus has fiscal 2027 revenue of $6.22bn, up 33%, with earnings per share of $3.19 against $1.57 — estimates rising, not being cut. Onsemi's discount is partly self-inflicted: its 25 June agreement to buy Synaptics for about $7bn in stock, its largest deal ever, lands within days of its high. It trades at 26.1x forward earnings against 52.8x trailing.

The other side is valuation. Monolithic Power is the most expensive name on every lens — 52.1x forward earnings, 30.6x forward gross profit and a free-cash-flow yield below 1% — so its decline is compression from a very high base rather than a verdict on demand. Texas Instruments at 33.4x forward earnings and 11.8x forward sales, and Analog Devices at 31.5x forward, are in the same category. Analog Devices, which grew 37% last quarter, reports on 19 August.

One name is genuinely deteriorating. Cirrus Logic, the Austin designer of audio and power chips for smartphones and PCs, is the only member still making new lows. Its June quarter was a record $459.7m, up 12.9%, but on 5 August it lowered its PC expectations, citing constrained supply of a key platform and memory and component shortages pressuring customer pricing. Consensus fiscal 2027 earnings of $8.43 a share are 7% below fiscal 2026, and its forward multiple of 14.2x has caught up with its trailing one.

The RF rally that isn't

Qorvo and Skyworks, the radio-frequency chipmakers merging under an October 2025 agreement of 0.960 Skyworks shares plus $32.50 in cash per Qorvo share, look like leadership rotating toward consumer chips. The math says otherwise: at Skyworks' 17 August close of $69.68, the terms imply $99.39 for Qorvo, against its actual close of $98.20. Qorvo tracks its acquirer. And Skyworks is the one business here that is shrinking — July-quarter revenue fell 3.1%, a third consecutive decline, with operating income down 56%; consensus has fiscal 2027 earnings per share falling again. Silicon Labs is not a trend reading either: it sits about 5% below the $231 a share Texas Instruments agreed to pay in cash in February, which is why it is flat over both 30 and 90 days.

The setup

Where it stands — Analog order books are accelerating while shares sit below June highs; the bearish trend flags describe July, not August. Would confirm — Analog Devices' 19 August quarter showing sequential revenue growth with gross margin above 67%. Would invalidate — Distributor inventory days rebuilding above 30 at Microchip, or book-to-bill slipping below 1 at NXP. Watch next — Analog Devices reports fiscal third-quarter results before the open on 19 August 2026. Valuation — NXP at 15.4x forward earnings against 19.8x trailing; Monolithic Power at 52.1x forward against 86.3x trailing.