In the last week of July, five businesses that sit between investors and the markets they trade reported quarterly results within six days of one another. In the middle of that week, Intercontinental Exchange — owner of the New York Stock Exchange, 13 regulated exchanges and a growing bond-data arm — agreed to buy MarketAxess, the electronic venue where institutions trade corporate bonds, for $167 a share in cash, a 33% premium and about $6.0bn of equity value. ICE filed the deal with the Securities and Exchange Commission on 30 July; it expects to close in the first half of 2027.

That week did the work. Across the six names — ICE, CME Group, Tradeweb, Morningstar, CoStar and Starwood Property Trust — the past month is worth about 10% on an equal-weight basis. Remove each company's two best sessions and the group is down about 2%. The 22–28 July stretch alone delivered an average 7.3 points, led by Morningstar's 16.4%. (Local price records are missing three sessions in that stretch, so the 28 July close bundles roughly four days of move.)

The fear has not lifted for everyone

The premise being tested here is that markets have been de-rating anyone who sells financial information by subscription, on the argument that large language models make that data cheap to reproduce. That trade is still running. Over the same 30 days S&P Global, the ratings and index company, fell 5.8% and index provider MSCI fell 8.5%; over twelve months S&P Global is down 25.8% and FactSet down 24.4%. S&P Global's shares hit a two-year low in February after guiding 2026 profit below expectations. Morgan Stanley's equity strategists have argued the threat is uneven — owners of proprietary datasets fare better than aggregators of other people's.

By that test the six divide cleanly.

Two businesses the numbers support

Morningstar, which sells fund research, ratings, indexes and the PitchBook private-markets database to advisers and asset managers, is the cleanest case. Second-quarter revenue was $663.2m, up 9.6%. Operating income rose 28.4%, taking operating margin to 24.2% from 20.7% a year earlier — the third straight quarter above the 21.5% it managed for all of 2025. Free cash flow nearly doubled to $122.5m and adjusted earnings of $3.10 a share beat the $2.83 consensus. The stock trades at 17.0x forward earnings against 19.5x trailing, the cheapest forward multiple of the six, on consensus 2026 earnings of $12.20 a share. The blemish is PitchBook: $174.7m of revenue, but growth of only 4.9% and a slightly lower margin.

ICE is a milder version. Revenue of $3.611bn grew 10.7%, with operating margin at 55.0% against 39.8% a year earlier. Recurring revenue reached a record $1.4bn, and management raised full-year growth guidance for its fixed-income and data unit to 7–8% from mid-single digits. Index exchange-traded fund assets under management hit $922bn, up 29%. The quarterly buyback went to $400m from $350m. Shares change hands at 19.2x forward earnings against 21.8x trailing.

Two the numbers do not

CME Group, the Chicago futures exchange where traders hedge interest rates, equity indexes and crops, grew revenue just 0.8% to $1.706bn — down from 14.5% growth the prior quarter. Average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts was the second-highest second quarter ever, but the average rate per contract slipped to $0.678 from $0.690 a year ago. Market data revenue was a bright spot at a record $238m, up 20% and the 33rd consecutive quarter of growth. At 22.8x trailing and 22.0x forward earnings, less than a turn separates the two — the market is pricing almost no growth. CME's own event contracts run above 4 million a day, while combined monthly volume at prediction venues Kalshi and Polymarket reached about $44.8bn in June, from under $5bn last September.

Tradeweb, which runs electronic platforms for trading rates, credit and money markets for roughly 2,500 institutions, grew revenue 9.0% to $558.9m, down from 21.2% a quarter earlier. Average daily volume rose 18.2% to $3.0tn and market share hit records, but average fees per million fell 10.3% in long-tenor swaps and 11.4% in cash credit — volume outrunning revenue. It is the only one of the six whose forward multiple, 26.4x, sits above its trailing 25.3x.

The one the chart got right

CoStar, which sells commercial-property data and runs Apartments.com and Homes.com, has been in a downtrend for 191 straight trading sessions since 4 November, its 50-day average below its 200-day throughout. Revenue grew 18.4% to $925m, the 61st consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and the residential segment turned its first quarterly profit at $12m of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. But net new bookings — the forward order book — fell 26% to $69m, and management cut 2026 revenue guidance to $3.715–3.755bn after restructuring its auction arm and cutting the Homes.com inside sales force by 21%. Trailing earnings are near zero; the usable anchors are 3.51x forward sales and 1.65x book.

Starwood Property Trust is not an exchange or a data business at all. It is a $6.0bn commercial mortgage lender, trading at 0.92x book, and it fell 2.2% over the month — the only decliner. It earned $0.40 a share of distributable earnings against a declared $0.48 dividend, the second straight uncovered quarter.

The setup

Where it stands — A month's gain concentrated in one earnings week and one takeover bid, with only Morningstar and ICE delivering results that match it. Would confirm — Morningstar holding operating margin above 24% and CoStar's net new bookings returning to year-on-year growth in the third quarter. Would invalidate — CME's rate per contract falling below $0.678 again, or Tradeweb's revenue growth slipping below 9%. Watch next — Third-quarter results in late October; ICE's MarketAxess purchase is due to close in the first half of 2027. Valuation — Morningstar 17.0x forward against 19.5x trailing; ICE 19.2x versus 21.8x; CME 22.0x versus 22.8x; Tradeweb 26.4x above 25.3x.