Canada's Defence Investment Agency has agreed to pay Telesat, the Ottawa operator of 14 geostationary satellites, $2.3bn — roughly $2.7bn with two five-year options — for Military Ka-band Arctic connectivity, covering 15 years of service from 2028 and funding 69 additional satellites to be built by MDA Space. Announced in early August, it is the largest commitment yet to Lightspeed, the low-Earth-orbit constellation Telesat has been building while its legacy business shrinks. A week earlier Viasat, the Carlsbad, California operator that sells satellite broadband to homes, in-flight connectivity to airlines and secure links to armed forces, reported Defense and Advanced Technologies awards up 22% to $524m.

That is what has moved this small group of satellite and ground-equipment companies over the past month — and it has moved only two of them. Telesat's US-listed shares rose 29% over 22 trading sessions and Viasat 17%; AST SpaceMobile and Gilat both fell.

The levered operators the market had written off

Telesat's operating business is in steep decline. Revenue fell 25.2% year on year to $87.3m in the March quarter, after drops of 26.6% and 27.0% in the two preceding quarters, and adjusted EBITDA from the geostationary fleet ran 30% lower year on year in the first half, with margin down to 73% from 77%. Consensus models revenue falling to $322.8m this year and $277.7m in 2027 before Lightspeed doubles it in 2028. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $300–320m revenue but raised planned Lightspeed spending by $300m, to $1.3–1.5bn.

The balance sheet is the constraint. The equity is worth $778m, an order of magnitude smaller than any peer here, against $1.7bn of geostationary debt maturing in December 2026 that cash resources alone cannot repay, with legacy creditors suing in New York and Ontario over last September's distribution of the Lightspeed business. Management denied it is weighing Chapter 11 and disclosed a new $120m term loan; the shares fell 11.3% on the day of those disclosures, after jumping 36% in a single session on 4 August. Trailing enterprise value to EBITDA is negative at -9.4x and free-cash-flow yield -52.6%: no earnings multiple applies. Business verdict: CONTRADICTS. Valuation: INCONCLUSIVE — this is a refinancing outcome, not a multiple.

Viasat is the better business and the more consumed opportunity. Fiscal first-quarter revenue was $1.157bn, down 1.2%, with a $51.7m net loss and adjusted EBITDA down 7% to $381m — but free cash flow rose 19% to $72m, communications backlog grew 13%, and net debt to EBITDA improved to 3.2x from 3.6x. Fixed broadband revenue fell 27% at 115,000 subscribers, offset by aviation up 11% across 4,530 aircraft and government satellite communications up 10%. Consensus sees 4.0% revenue growth to $4.85bn this fiscal year with losses persisting through fiscal 2028. Shares trade at 2.35x forward sales against roughly 1.4x when this desk's notes described a deep discount to orbital peers in May, and 9.26x trailing EV/EBITDA on a 5.06% free-cash-flow yield. Business verdict: CONTRADICTS on the income statement, confirms on backlog and leverage. Valuation: the discount has largely closed.

The growth stories went the other way

AST SpaceMobile, the Midland, Texas company building satellites that connect directly to ordinary smartphones, is 46% below its 52-week high despite the strongest quarter in its history: revenue of $31.5m against $1.16m a year ago, backlog at $1.3bn, a preliminary award of up to $1bn from Japan's J-LEO programme, and $3.7bn of pro-forma cash. It still lost $230.9m in the quarter and trades at 183x forward sales — down from about 500x in May. Business verdict: CONTRADICTS, in the company's favour. Valuation: a justified de-rating that leaves it far from cheap.

Gilat, the Israeli maker of satellite ground terminals, antennas and modems, has fallen 40% in three months. Revenue rose 17% to $122.7m and adjusted EBITDA 31%, but shares fell on negative operating cash flow and working-capital build; operating income fell 30.8% to $3.9m. Full-year guidance of $500–520m was reaffirmed and the purchase of most of Comtech's satellite communications arm is pending. At 18.3x forward earnings and 1.71x forward sales it is the only profitable name here. Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE.

EchoStar, now trading as ECHO after changing its ticker from SATS on 24 June, completed the $23bn sale of wireless spectrum to AT&T on 28 July and holds $14–15bn of cash plus 261.8m SpaceX shares. Its operating businesses are failing: revenue fell 4.0%, and Hughes Network Systems, whose subscribers dropped from 1.56m in 2020 to 681,000, filed for Chapter 11 on 1 August rather than repay a $1.5bn note.

The common backdrop is SpaceX's Nasdaq debut on 12 June at roughly $2.2tn, which reset what investors will pay for an unbuilt constellation. Money has rotated from orbital narratives to contracted government revenue — even where that revenue sits inside heavily indebted balance sheets.

The setup

Where it stands — Defence awards drove Telesat and Viasat higher this month while AST SpaceMobile and Gilat fell on cash-flow and valuation concerns.

Would confirm — Telesat announcing a consensual refinancing of the $1.7bn December maturity, and Viasat backlog growth holding above 10%.

Would invalidate — Telesat entering insolvency proceedings, or Viasat fiscal 2027 capex exceeding the $950m–$1bn guide against ~$180m free cash flow.

Watch next — Viasat's ViaSat-3 Flight 3 entering Asia-Pacific service, expected late August or early September 2026.

Valuation — Viasat 2.35x forward sales versus ~1.4x in May; Gilat 25.0x trailing and 18.3x forward earnings; Telesat's multiples negative.