UiPath Re-Rated 29% in Two Weeks on Zero New Company Information
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Five small American software companies that bill customers per automated workflow, per governed data seat, per insurance claim and per trading-partner connection have just finished reporting, and the results do not point one way. CCC Intelligent Solutions raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.158–1.164bn on 9.8% quarterly growth, and AvePoint lifted its recurring-revenue target after annual recurring revenue rose 27% to $465.1m. SPS Commerce guided to roughly 5% growth for 2026 after 17.8% in 2025, and EverCommerce, growing 2.7%, steered to the low end of its range and changed chief executives.
UiPath, the robotic-process-automation vendor, is the outlier: it has not reported since 28 May, yet its market capitalisation has moved from $6.32bn to $8.12bn since late July on no company news, against recurring revenue growing 12% and retention of 109%. Its next print is 3 September.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PATH | UiPath | Business Software & Automation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +28.0% | +44.4% |
AVPT | AvePoint | Business Software & Automation | 🌱 Emerging Bull | +2.3% | −12.9% |
CCC | CCC Intelligent Solutions | Business Software & Automation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +9.3% | −27.1% |
SPSC | SPS Commerce | Business Software & Automation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +18.0% | −31.1% |
EVCM | EverCommerce | Business Software & Automation | ⚠️ Emerging Bear | −8.9% | −7.0% |
CSGS | CSG Systems International | Business Software & Automation | 🟢 Cont. Bull | — | +32.2% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PATH | $8.1B | 25.3x | 19.5x | 4.9x | 4.6x | 5.9x | 5.5x | 47.2x | 4.6% |
AVPT | $2.8B | 39.0x | 32.3x | 5.9x | 5.4x | 8.1x | 7.3x | 32.9x | 3.6% |
CCC | $4.1B | 105.6x | 15.5x | 3.7x | 3.5x | 5.0x | 4.8x | 16.9x | 7.5% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPSC | $2.8B | 36.7x | 15.7x | 3.6x | 3.5x | 5.1x | 5.0x | 14.1x | 7.2% |
EVCM | $1.8B | 53.7x | 13.6x | 2.9x | 2.9x | 3.9x | 3.8x | 16.1x | 5.3% |
CSGS | $2.3B | 35.2x | 15.9x | 1.9x | 2.0x | 3.9x | 4.2x | 13.7x | 5.7% |
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PATH | Revenue | +11.4% | +11.5% | +8.4% |
| EPS | +40.5% | +16.2% | +15.2% | |
AVPT | Revenue | +23.4% | +20.2% | +19.1% |
| EPS | +19.9% | +23.3% | +21.7% | |
CCC | Revenue | +10.1% | +8.9% | +8.2% |
| EPS | +25.4% | +16.1% | +13.7% | |
SPSC | Revenue | +5.1% | +6.4% | +7.5% |
| EPS | +17.9% | +8.9% | +13.3% | |
EVCM | Revenue | +4.6% | +4.6% | +4.5% |
| EPS | +677.9% | +5.4% | +4.9% | |
CSGS | Revenue | +0.1% | +3.1% | +5.2% |
| EPS | +6.9% | +7.7% | +17.4% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
Late July and early August brought earnings from five companies that sell software priced by the unit of work automated — a claim estimated, a data seat governed, a purchase order routed, a service call booked. They reported within eight days of each other, and the operating results came out in opposite directions.
A sixth name that once sat alongside them is simply gone. CSG Systems International, which ran billing software for cable and telecom carriers, was acquired by NEC through its Netcracker subsidiary on 14 May 2026 for $80.70 a share in cash, a deal worth about $2.9bn including debt, and delisted later that month. Its frozen price still props up any average that includes it; the five live names are down about 7% over twelve months.
The two that raised
CCC Intelligent Solutions, which operates the network connecting property-and-casualty insurers, collision repair shops, parts suppliers and lenders, grew second-quarter revenue 9.8% to $285.9m and raised full-year guidance to $1.158–1.164bn of revenue and $485–491m of adjusted EBITDA. Operating margin nearly doubled to 16.7%. Its artificial-intelligence products now run above $120m annualised, growing about 50% and supplying four of the quarter's ten points of growth; net dollar retention rose to 107 from 106, and trailing free cash flow reached $308m, up 36%. The business CONFIRMS the move. So does the price: 15.5x forward earnings, 16.9x trailing enterprise value to EBITDA and a 7.5% free-cash-flow yield, after a 27% twelve-month decline. The 105.6x trailing price-to-earnings ratio is distorted by amortisation and stock compensation on a 2.5x-levered balance sheet.
AvePoint, which sells data governance, backup and compliance tools for Microsoft 365 and rival cloud suites, grew revenue 22% to $124.5m, lifted annual recurring revenue 27% to $465.1m with record net new additions of $29.9m, and raised its full-year recurring-revenue target. Managed-service partners now carry 59% of that base. The business CONFIRMS; the valuation is the group's dearest, at 7.33x forward gross profit against CCC's 4.81x, and Microsoft made Agent 365, a control plane for governing AI agents, generally available on 1 May — priced at $15 per user standalone — directly against AvePoint's AgentPulse.
The one with nothing new to say
UiPath, the New York vendor whose low-code platform builds and orchestrates software bots for banks, hospitals and governments, has not reported since 28 May. Its April-quarter results showed annual recurring revenue of $1.901bn, up 12%, with net retention of 109% — five points below reported revenue growth of 17.3%, and below the 110% line. Consensus has revenue growth halving to 11.5% next year and 8.4% the year after. Since this desk logged the stock at 4.55x gross profit and a $6.32bn value on 29 July, it has re-rated to 5.85x and $8.12bn on no company disclosure. Fundamentals CONTRADICT the advance: the entire gain is multiple expansion in the one business here most exposed to AI agents that automate workflows natively, without scripted rules.
The two that slowed
SPS Commerce, which runs the retail supply-chain network handling electronic trading-partner connections for retailers and suppliers, grew just 5.6% to $197.8m after 17.8% for 2025, guided to about 5% for the year, sold its Amazon-seller recovery unit at a $23.5m loss and shed roughly 200 recurring customers sequentially. Growth CONTRADICTS a 50% three-month gain — though adjusted EBITDA rose 19% and trailing free cash flow 40% to $198.7m, leaving 15.7x forward earnings versus 36.7x trailing.
EverCommerce, which sells vertical software and payments to home-services, health and fitness small businesses, grew 2.7%, runs blended net revenue retention of 94%, steered to the low end of guidance and installed Alex Goor as chief executive on 6 August. Management blamed slower customer acquisition on "evolving AI-driven search behavior affecting organic traffic" — the commoditisation risk arriving as a measured revenue headwind. Business and tape agree; at 13.6x forward earnings it is the cheapest of the five.
What the tape was actually doing
All five rose 5–12% on 26 June, fell 3–11% on 22 July and rose 2–14% around the 28–29 July Federal Reserve meeting. That is factor rotation: US small caps returned 22.93% in the first half of 2026, their best on record, against 9.55% for large caps. The bounce is three months old, not a fresh turn.
The setup
Where it stands — Two of five raised guidance; UiPath's 29% two-week re-rating rests on no new company information. Would confirm — CCC's AI revenue holding roughly 50% growth and net dollar retention above 107 in the October quarter. Would invalidate — UiPath reporting annual recurring revenue growth below 12% or retention under 109% on 3 September. Watch next — UiPath's second-quarter fiscal 2027 results, 3 September 2026; CCC and SPS Commerce report late October. Valuation — CCC 15.5x forward earnings, 16.9x trailing EV/EBITDA; UiPath 19.5x forward against 25.3x trailing; AvePoint 7.33x forward gross profit.