DK Street Journal

Getty and Shutterstock Lost Half Their Value on a Broken Merger, Not AI

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.2

A $3.7bn merger between the world's two largest stock-photo libraries collapsed on 30 June after Britain's competition regulator demanded Shutterstock sell its editorial arm. The fallout has been brutal: Getty Images has lost 53% in a month, Shutterstock 35%, and Shutterstock has now taken a $163.4m goodwill write-off, withdrawn all 2026 guidance and cancelled its 6 August investor call.

The easy reading — that image-generating artificial intelligence is killing these businesses — only half fits. Shutterstock's revenue did fall 16.9% year on year to $221.8m, and consensus models a 23.3% decline for the full year. But Getty's own revenue rose 1.1% last quarter; its equity broke on debt, not licensing. Meanwhile Adobe, supposedly the most AI-exposed name of all, grew 12.7% last quarter and trades at 10.9x forward earnings.

The unresolved question is whether Getty's $183m of equity value survives a mandatory bond redemption.

ADBESSTKGETYCHGGFIGNETQLYSSSAILZSCRWDPANWOKTAFTNTTENB
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
ADBEAdobeDesign & Content Creation🔴 Cont. Bear+20.0%−21.6%
SSTKShutterstockMedia & Content Distribution🔴 Cont. Bear−33.0%−69.1%
GETYGetty ImagesInternet Content & Information🔴 Cont. Bear−46.9%−75.5%
CHGGCheggEducation & Training Services🌱 Emerging Bull+1.7%−18.2%
FIGFigmaDesign & Content Creation🔴 Cont. Bear+7.5%−70.2%
Compared against · context, not the story
NETCloudflareNetwork & Application Delivery🟢 Cont. Bull+9.8%+42.7%
QLYSQualysCybersecurity & Threat Protection🔴 Cont. Bear+19.5%+42.6%
SSentinelOneCybersecurity & Threat Protection🌱 Emerging Bull+20.2%+28.4%
SAILSailPointIdentity & Access Management🔴 Cont. Bear+23.5%−6.8%
ZSZscalerAI & Data Intelligence🔴 Cont. Bear+17.5%−38.1%
CRWDCrowdStrikeCybersecurity & Threat Protection🔴 Cont. Bear+12.2%−49.5%
PANWPalo Alto NetworksCybersecurity & Threat Protection🌱 Emerging Bull+13.5%+116.5%
OKTAOktaIdentity & Access Management🌱 Emerging Bull+1.1%+58.5%
FTNTFortinetNetwork Security Appliances🌱 Emerging Bull+1.9%+112.0%
TENBTenableCybersecurity & Threat Protection🌱 Emerging Bull−8.0%+23.7%

12-month price & trend

ADBE
Adobe
265
+4.97 (+1.91%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ADBE 12-month price
Design & Content Creation
SSTK
Shutterstock
5.96
+0.05 (+0.85%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SSTK 12-month price
Media & Content Distribution
GETY
Getty Images
0.44
−0.00 (−0.97%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GETY 12-month price
Internet Content & Information
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ADBE$105.4B15.2x10.9x4.2x4.0x4.7x4.5x10.8x10.1%
SSTK$219.0Mn/m0.2x0.3x0.4x0.5xn/m40.6%
GETY$183.0Mn/m19.0x0.2x0.2x0.3x0.3x17.6x15.9%
CHGG
Chegg
0.92
+0.04 (+4.22%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CHGG 12-month price
Education & Training Services
FIG
Figma
23.29
−0.68 (−2.84%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
FIG 12-month price
Design & Content Creation
NET
Cloudflare
300
+15.84 (+5.57%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NET 12-month price
Network & Application Delivery
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
CHGG$102.5Mn/m0.4x0.5x0.7x0.9x3.4x-0.8%
FIG$11.4Bn/m81.3x8.9x7.7x11.2x9.7xn/m2.8%
NET$106.6Bn/m250.8x42.4x37.9x58.4x52.2x0.4%
QLYS
Qualys
183
+1.70 (+0.94%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
QLYS 12-month price
Cybersecurity & Threat Protection
S
SentinelOne
21.40
+0.64 (+3.08%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
S 12-month price
Cybersecurity & Threat Protection
SAIL
SailPoint
18.66
+0.98 (+5.54%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SAIL 12-month price
Identity & Access Management
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
QLYS$3.2B15.9x11.9x4.6x4.4x5.5x5.3x11.4x9.2%
S$7.2Bn/m61.3x6.9x6.0x9.3x8.1xn/m0.6%
SAIL$10.6Bn/m9.4x14.2x809.6x1.7%
ZS
Zscaler
169
+6.08 (+3.74%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ZS 12-month price
AI & Data Intelligence
CRWD
CrowdStrike
214
+7.03 (+3.39%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CRWD 12-month price
Cybersecurity & Threat Protection
PANW
Palo Alto Networks
364
+4.37 (+1.22%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
PANW 12-month price
Cybersecurity & Threat Protection
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ZS$27.3Bn/m36.8x8.6x7.0x11.2x9.1x231.2x3.5%
CRWD$218.3Bn/m174.2x42.9x36.7x57.2x48.9x641.2x0.7%
PANW$296.5B305.8x88.4x28.0x21.4x38.9x29.7x130.0x1.4%
OKTA
Okta
148
+4.81 (+3.35%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
OKTA 12-month price
Identity & Access Management
FTNT
Fortinet
160
−0.47 (−0.29%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
FTNT 12-month price
Network Security Appliances
TENB
Tenable
36.38
+0.21 (+0.58%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TENB 12-month price
Cybersecurity & Threat Protection
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
OKTA$24.6B105.9x38.6x8.2x7.7x10.6x9.9x67.5x3.7%
FTNT$117.1B55.8x46.6x15.6x14.5x19.4x18.0x39.6x2.7%
TENB$2.4Bn/m11.0x2.3x2.2x2.9x2.8x23.3x11.1%

Valuation & fundamentals

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
ADBERevenue+12.0%+9.1%+8.8%
EPS+17.2%+12.7%+14.2%
SSTKRevenue−23.3%−8.0%−4.9%
EPS−145.9%−148.0%+10.2%
GETYRevenue+1.8%+0.9%+3.8%
EPS−112.1%+126.0%+185.7%
CHGGRevenue−45.2%−21.3%
EPS+61.4%−50.0%
FIGRevenue+40.5%+23.8%+24.2%
EPS−24.5%+26.7%+34.4%
NETRevenue+31.0%+27.9%+27.4%
EPS+31.0%+32.8%+38.3%
QLYSRevenue+8.6%+7.0%+6.6%
EPS+8.6%+9.2%+5.3%
SRevenue+22.4%+19.9%+17.6%
EPS+723.4%+83.7%+43.0%
ZSRevenue+25.2%+16.9%+16.7%
EPS+29.0%+11.2%+17.6%
CRWDRevenue+22.2%+23.7%+21.8%
EPS−1.2%+32.6%+26.5%
PANWRevenue+24.3%+21.1%+14.1%
EPS+15.3%+9.0%+17.6%
OKTARevenue+12.0%+10.0%+9.5%
EPS+24.3%+11.7%+10.8%
FTNTRevenue+19.8%+11.3%+10.9%
EPS+27.0%+9.4%+13.3%
TENBRevenue+8.4%+7.1%+6.9%
EPS+27.0%+10.5%+10.1%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Getty Images' board voted on 30 June to walk away from its $3.7bn takeover of Shutterstock, its largest rival, after Britain's Competition and Markets Authority demanded Shutterstock divest its editorial business as a condition of clearance — a remedy the parties would not accept, despite US antitrust approval in February. The agreement lapsed in early July.

For Getty, which licenses photographs, video and a proprietary archive covering roughly 160,000 news, sport and entertainment events through the Getty Images, iStock and Unsplash brands, the consequences were financial rather than strategic. The deal's failure triggered a special mandatory redemption on Getty's $628.4m of 10.500% senior secured notes due 2030, cost the company a $162m cash benefit the merger would have delivered, and prompted S&P Global Ratings to cut its credit rating from B to CCC+. Those notes were only settled and closed as part of an exchange offer that the merger was meant to take out. The board says it will retain an adviser on financing alternatives.

The business is not what broke

Getty's revenue rose 1.1% year on year in the first quarter to $226.6m, and 4.5% for full-year 2025 to $981.3m. Gross margin slipped from 73.1% to 66.8% and the company lost $206.1m last year, but this is not a collapsing top line. Getty also largely lost its landmark copyright case against image-generator Stability AI, when the English High Court ruled in November 2025 that AI model weights are not a 'copy' of training images; an appeal was granted in December.

Shutterstock is the genuine substitution casualty. The marketplace, which licenses images, footage, music and 3D models under the Shutterstock, Envato, Pond5 and TurboSquid brands, reported second-quarter revenue of $221.8m, down 17%, with content revenue down 17% on weak new-customer acquisition and a $163.4m non-cash goodwill impairment producing a $155.9m net loss. Gross margin fell from 60.3% to 57.7%. Management cancelled the 6 August earnings call and will issue no guidance for the rest of 2026, having already cut over $70m of annualised costs with $60m more targeted by year-end.

Verdict on the business: CONFIRMS at Shutterstock, CONTRADICTS at Getty.

The software names went the other way

Adobe, the $105bn maker of Photoshop, Illustrator and Acrobat, is the name most often cast as generative AI's victim. Its revenue growth has accelerated three quarters running — 10.5%, then 12.0%, then 12.7% to $6.618bn — and AI-first annual recurring revenue tripled past $500m, with its Firefly image generator nearing $300m and free creative users above 90 million. The soft spot is pricing, not seats: Adobe deferred planned second-half Creative Cloud price rises, which accounts for roughly half its reduced recurring-revenue growth expectation. Operating margin fell from 35.9% to 33.8%. It also closed a $1.9bn all-cash purchase of search-analytics firm Semrush in April.

Figma, the browser-based collaborative design platform that listed last year, grew revenue 48.2% to $370.1m, its third straight quarter of acceleration, with existing customers spending 36% more than a year earlier and full-year guidance raised $40m. It still fell 16.5% after hours on 5 August because third-quarter guidance implies barely 1% sequential growth and reported operating expenses have nearly doubled to $426.9m, producing a $117.3m operating loss.

Chegg, the shrunken online-homework service, is the arithmetic curiosity: revenue down 50.7% to $51.8m, yet adjusted EBITDA of $9.1m, $6.4m of free cash flow and $38.5m of net cash against a $102.5m market value.

Where the multiples sit

Adobe: 15.2x trailing and 10.9x forward earnings, 10.8x enterprise value to EBITDA, a 10.1% free-cash-flow yield, against consensus for 12.0% revenue growth this year and 9.1% next. Getty: 0.19x sales looks cheap, but 17.6x trailing enterprise value to EBITDA on $183m of equity says the stock is a leveraged option on refinancing. Shutterstock: forward price-to-sales of 0.28x sits above trailing 0.24x — the market stating outright that revenue shrinks from here — despite a 40.6% free-cash-flow yield and 0.60x book value. Figma: 7.72x forward sales, down from 8.86x trailing. Valuation verdict: possible dislocation at Adobe; justified de-rating at Shutterstock and Figma; INCONCLUSIVE at Getty, where equity value depends on a bond negotiation.

Against cybersecurity software, which averaged roughly +7% over the same 30 days, Adobe led and Figma matched. Whatever is happening to the stock-media libraries, it is not happening to the creative-software vendors.

The setup

Where it stands — Getty and Shutterstock have lost roughly half their value on a failed merger and a forced bond redemption, not on licensing collapse.

Would confirm — Shutterstock full-year revenue landing near the consensus $783.6m, and Getty announcing refinancing terms on the $628.4m notes.

Would invalidate — Getty's next quarter showing licensing revenue down more than 5% year on year, making AI substitution the cause after all.

Watch next — Shutterstock's promised strategic update after its cancelled 6 August call; Adobe's third-quarter results in September.

Valuation — Adobe 15.2x trailing / 10.9x forward earnings; Shutterstock 0.24x trailing sales versus 0.28x forward; Getty 17.6x EV/EBITDA.