A rotation lifts most of the group, but not the ones you'd expect

A wave of money moved out of semiconductor stocks and into software in July, and nine infrastructure-oriented software companies rode it: seven of the nine rose over the past month, led by Atlassian, which makes the Jira and Confluence project-tracking tools software teams use to plan and ship code, up 26.9%, and Bill.com, which automates invoicing and payments for small and mid-size businesses, up 19.0%. But the rally hides a split that matters: the two stocks with the longest, most persistent uptrends in the group all year — Twilio, whose software lets businesses embed text messaging and voice calls into their own apps, and JFrog, which stores and manages the code components development teams rely on to build software — are the group's only two decliners over the same month, down 8.8% and 10.3% respectively. The gap between a chart's trend label and this month's tape matters: some of the loudest technical "uptrend" signals here are stale, dating to an April–July advance that has already run its course, while a separate signal, Atlassian's own flip from downtrend to uptrend, is barely a day old.

Chips down, software up — plus one earnings beat

On July 2, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index began sliding from a June peak near 14,655 to a July low near 11,195, and investors rotated capital into software names that had lagged; the rotation continued through the month as chips suffered their worst month in over a decade. That macro current lifted most of the group regardless of company news. Layered on top, Dynatrace, whose software monitors the health of corporate computer systems, beat earnings and raised its full-year outlook this morning (Aug. 5), sending its stock up roughly 11% — the sharpest single-day, company-specific mover in the group.

Twilio: the business backs the year, even as the stock cools

Twilio's fundamentals support its long uptrend even as the stock fell over the past month. Quarterly revenue growth accelerated to 20% reported (16% organic) in its latest quarter, the fastest organic pace since 2022, up from 13.5% a year earlier, and the company raised full-year growth guidance to 9.5%-10.5% from 8%-9% after highlighting new AI-voice and messaging products. Non-GAAP operating margin rose to 7.65% from under 2% a year ago, even as roughly $46 million a quarter in carrier pass-through fees compressed gross margin without touching cash flow. Twilio trades at 5.0x forward sales, below its own ten-year median near 7.2x, leaving room even after a 48% twelve-month gain. Verdict: CONFIRMS — the business supports the uptrend; the stock's recent dip looks like the rotation trade fading, not a growth problem.

Atlassian: a fresh flip with real numbers behind it, and one real risk

Atlassian's shift from downtrend to uptrend is only a day or two old, not a week, but it lines up with genuine momentum: revenue growth accelerated for three straight quarters to 31.7% in its latest print, and customers using its Rovo AI assistant are growing spending roughly twice as fast as customers who don't, with AI credit usage up more than 20% a month. Forward price-to-earnings sits at 18.7x, cheap next to that growth rate. But the company's own disclosures show its first-ever decline in enterprise seat counts this year — a real risk to a business still priced per seat. Verdict: CONFIRMS the immediate re-rating, with a structural question the market hasn't fully priced.

Nutanix: the clearest case of price outrunning the business

Nutanix, which sells software for running virtual machines across data centers as an alternative to VMware, shows the tape running ahead of fundamentals. Revenue growth decelerated for three straight quarters, from 13.5% to 10.0%, even as its price-to-sales multiple rose to roughly 6.0x from about 3.9x in May. Third-party analysis of the VMware-displacement trend it depends on found deals concentrated in accounts already inclined to switch, at discounts of 40%-48%, not broad share capture. Verdict: CONTRADICTS — price has outrun the growth trend.

The rest of the group: durable growth, split valuations

JFrog and Samsara, which sells sensor and telemetry software for tracking vehicles and physical operations, both show durable growth — JFrog's revenue growth has held near 25% for four straight quarters, Samsara's near 29%-30% — but their multiples ran further than Nutanix's: JFrog to 18x trailing sales from about 9x in May, Samsara to 13x from about 9x. JFrog's pullback this month reads as multiples catching down to fundamentals rather than a business problem. Veeva, whose software runs sales and regulatory operations for drugmakers, held a steady 16% growth rate and trades at 9.5x forward sales, in line with its recent range — CONFIRMS on the business, INCONCLUSIVE on further re-rating. Bill.com turned its operating margin positive for the first time in over a year and trades at 14.3x forward earnings, among the cheapest multiples here — CONFIRMS. Salesforce, the group's only mega-cap and the largest customer-management software platform, re-accelerated revenue growth to 13.3% and trades at 13.6x forward earnings despite a 23% twelve-month stock decline; seven of its ten largest deals last quarter added human seats rather than losing them to AI automation, according to the company's own disclosures — CONFIRMS, though its AI-agent pivot remains commercially unproven.

The charts are firing at different points in each stock's cycle

Eight of nine names now carry bullish trend classifications, but the timing diverges sharply: Twilio and JFrog have held uptrends since mid-April and are only now cooling, while Atlassian's status flipped from a persistent downtrend as recently as August 3-4. The signals are not confirming each other simultaneously — they're firing at opposite ends of each stock's own cycle.

The setup

Where it stands — Seven of nine names rose over 30 days on a chip-to-software rotation plus scattered earnings beats, but growth and valuation diverge sharply by name. Would confirm — Nutanix's next quarterly revenue growth print stabilizes or reaccelerates above 10%, validating its higher multiple. Would invalidate — Twilio's organic revenue growth rate drops back below 14% in its next report, ending the multi-quarter acceleration. Watch next — Salesforce reports fiscal Q2 results in late August 2026; Atlassian's next print will show whether enterprise seat counts stabilized. Valuation — Twilio trades at 5.0x forward sales versus its own 7.2x ten-year median; Nutanix at ~6.0x trailing sales versus ~3.9x in May.