DK Street Journal

Analog and Auto Chipmakers Sell Off Together, But NXP's Business Is Accelerating

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Sonnet 5 · Writing Sonnet 5 · Prompt v1.1

Nine analog, auto and RF chipmakers fell together over the past month in a broad AI-linked semiconductor selloff, but the businesses underneath are diverging sharply: NXP Semiconductors posted its strongest order visibility in years while its stock fell the second-hardest in the group, Monolithic Power's AI-power business is genuinely growing while adjacent power-chip maker Navitas is the one actually losing ground, and Skyworks' cheap forward earnings multiple sits on top of three straight quarters of shrinking revenue.

ADIMPWRINDINXPIMCHPONSWKSQRVOLSCCNVTS
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
ADIAnalog DevicesAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−6.6%+65.0%
MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull+1.1%+64.8%
INDIindie SemiconductorRF & Wireless🌱 Emerging Bull−26.7%−10.9%
NXPINXP SemiconductorsAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−19.8%+7.6%
MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−14.2%+15.4%
ONON SemiconductorAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−14.4%+69.0%
SWKSSkyworks SolutionsAnalog & Mixed-Signal🌱 Emerging Bull−0.9%−6.7%
QRVOQorvoAnalog & Mixed-Signal🌱 Emerging Bull+2.8%+5.2%
LSCCLattice SemiconductorSpecialty Semiconductors🟢 Cont. Bull−6.9%+162.4%
NVTSNavitas SemiconductorOther🟢 Cont. Bull−24.4%+43.1%

12-month price & trend

ADI
Analog Devices
363
−4.32 (−1.18%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ADI 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems
1,362
−64.49 (−4.52%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MPWR 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
INDI
indie Semiconductor
3.39
+0.16 (+5.11%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
INDI 12-month price
RF & Wireless
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ADI$176.3B53.5x29.2x13.8x12.0x21.4x18.6x29.3x2.6%
MPWR$66.0B82.0x49.5x20.2x16.0x36.6x29.0x63.3x1.0%
INDI$716.3Mn/m3.3x2.7x28.6x23.4xn/m-9.1%
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors
225
−4.31 (−1.88%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NXPI 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
75.16
+0.87 (+1.17%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MCHP 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
ON
ON Semiconductor
81.09
−0.52 (−0.64%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ON 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NXPI$56.5B19.0x14.8x4.3x4.0x7.7x7.2x13.1x5.2%
MCHP$40.8B283.2x23.6x8.7x6.6x14.5x11.0x32.9x2.1%
ON$31.3B50.9x26.0x5.0x4.8x13.4x12.8x29.4x5.8%
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions
61.38
−0.90 (−1.45%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SWKS 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
QRVO
Qorvo
89.56
−1.01 (−1.12%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
QRVO 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
LSCC
Lattice Semiconductor
128
+3.60 (+2.90%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
LSCC 12-month price
Specialty Semiconductors
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
SWKS$9.2B31.6x12.2x2.3x2.3x5.6x5.6x11.5x2.1%
QRVO$7.9B20.6x12.0x2.2x2.3x4.6x4.8x10.4x8.2%
LSCC$17.4B872.9x70.1x30.4x22.9x45.5x34.2x225.8x0.9%
NVTS
Navitas Semiconductor
11.52
+0.66 (+6.08%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NVTS 12-month price
Other
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NVTS$2.8Bn/m77.6x60.3x250.1x194.3xn/m-2.4%

Valuation & fundamentals

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
ADIRevenue+34.6%+16.0%+9.7%
EPS+59.8%+21.6%+15.0%
MPWRRevenue+47.9%+26.0%+13.5%
EPS+53.3%+28.2%+13.2%
INDIRevenue+22.8%+35.4%+44.7%
EPS−44.1%−131.9%+471.0%
NXPIRevenue+16.6%+11.6%+8.4%
EPS+28.2%+20.5%+15.8%
MCHPRevenue+6.2%+33.1%+16.0%
EPS+20.7%+103.0%+31.0%
ONRevenue+8.0%+11.2%+13.4%
EPS+32.5%+39.2%+32.5%
SWKSRevenue−2.0%+1.8%+7.0%
EPS−11.3%−1.7%+17.6%
QRVORevenue−0.8%−4.7%+4.5%
EPS+21.6%+14.8%+6.6%
LSCCRevenue+2.3%+46.4%+23.9%
EPS+11.9%+72.8%+30.9%
NVTSRevenue+3.3%+57.9%+66.9%
EPS−26.5%−10.2%−51.3%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Nine chipmakers that sell analog, power-management and radio-frequency components to automakers, factories and phone makers have fallen together over the past 30 days, part of a broader semiconductor repricing that wiped out more than $1 trillion in chip-sector market value around July 29 as investors reassessed whether near-term revenue justifies artificial-intelligence infrastructure spending. But the shared price decline conceals two very different stories underneath: at least one company is reporting its strongest order visibility in years while its stock fell harder than almost anyone else in the group, and another looks cheap on next year's earnings only because this year's are collapsing.

NXP's order book is growing while its stock is not. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), which makes microcontrollers, RF chips and security processors sold mostly to automakers, reported second-quarter revenue up 19.5% year over year, with management explicitly stating it saw "no restocking" behind the growth and extending backlog visibility to 18 months. Book-to-bill is above 1.0 and climbing, gross margin rose to 58%, and its physical-AI design-win pipeline — chips for data centers and robotics — grew to $1.5 billion across 200-plus customers, more than double last year's total. Despite that, NXP's stock fell 19.8% over the past month, the second-worst decline in the group, leaving it at 19.0x trailing and 14.8x forward earnings — the cheapest multiple among these nine names even as consensus expects 28% earnings growth this year. That combination of accelerating fundamentals, a falling share price and the group's lowest multiple is the clearest case here of the tape pricing in cyclical weakness that the company's own numbers don't show.

Analog Devices and Microchip are recovering, unevenly. Analog Devices (ADI), a maker of analog and mixed-signal chips used across industrial, automotive and communications equipment, has posted five straight quarters of accelerating revenue growth, hitting 37% year over year in its most recent quarter, with gross margin expanding to 67%. But the recovery is lopsided: industrial bookings are running well above 1.0 book-to-bill while automotive orders remain below 1.0 and guided under seasonal levels — industrial demand is outrunning autos within ADI's own order book. Citi analysts have stayed buyers of ADI, Microchip and ON Semiconductor through the pullback, noting analog suppliers are largely shipping at consumption levels rather than still correcting channel inventory. Microchip Technology (MCHP), which makes microcontrollers and analog chips for industrial and auto customers, is rebuilding off a severe 2025 correction — revenue fell 42% that year before rebounding 35% in its latest quarter — but operating margin of 16% remains well below the 30%-plus it posted in 2022-2024, and its 23.6x forward earnings multiple prices in continued improvement that hasn't fully shown up yet.

Monolithic Power's AI exposure is real; Navitas's isn't holding. Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), which makes power-management chips including for AI data-center server racks, posted record quarterly revenue up 48% year over year with its AI-linked Enterprise Data segment up 45% sequentially, and raised its full-year guidance for that segment. Its stock still fell roughly 9% in a single session after Broadcom's soft AI guidance in June triggered a broader rotation out of high-multiple AI-adjacent chip names, leaving MPWR at 82x trailing and 49.5x forward earnings — among the richest multiples here. By contrast, Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), a maker of gallium-nitride and silicon-carbide power chips competing for the same Nvidia data-center power sockets against Infineon and ON Semiconductor, has seen revenue fall 27-59% year over year across recent quarters with negative gross margin in three of the last five, and its stock was cut from an uptrend to a downtrend signal in late July — a much cleaner case of an AI-premium name losing ground than Monolithic Power.

Skyworks and Qorvo: cheap against what? Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), which supplies RF chips mostly for smartphones led by Apple, has posted declining revenue in three of its last four quarters, with operating margin collapsing to 5.2% and net income down 68% year over year. Its 12.2x forward earnings multiple looks inexpensive only relative to earnings that are still shrinking. Skyworks is merging with Qorvo (QRVO), another Apple-concentrated RF supplier, to form a $22 billion combined company expected to close in early 2027; Qorvo's own operating margin has recovered to 12.3% from a 2025 trough near zero, and its 8.2% trailing free-cash-flow yield is the highest in the group.

ON's SiC business is still working through an EV slowdown. ON Semiconductor (ON), a maker of power and sensing chips including silicon-carbide components for electric vehicles, saw annual revenue fall 15% and gross margin compress from 45% to 32% in 2025 as U.S. electric-vehicle sales growth slowed sharply after federal tax-credit termination; margins have only partly recovered since. Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), which makes low-power programmable logic chips, is genuinely re-accelerating — revenue grew 42% last quarter — but trades at 70x forward earnings, the richest multiple in the group by far. indie Semiconductor (INDI), a small automotive driver-assistance chipmaker with a $716 million market value, remains unprofitable and fell 26.7% over the past month, the worst decline among these names, though its size means it moves the group average far more than it reflects broad demand.

On the tape, most of these stocks were cut from strong uptrends to milder ones in early July, and NXP's and Skyworks' declines have been sharpest; NXP's price move looks disconnected from what its own order book shows, while Skyworks' weaker signal lines up with its shrinking revenue.

The setup

Where it stands — NXP's fundamentals are accelerating while its stock lags the group; Skyworks and Navitas show deteriorating businesses matching their weaker charts. Would confirm — NXP's book-to-bill stays above 1.0 and automotive revenue keeps growing next quarter without a channel correction. Would invalidate — NXP's backlog visibility shortens or automotive orders reverse below 1.0 book-to-bill in the next earnings report. Watch next — NXP Semiconductors' next quarterly report, expected late October 2026. Valuation — NXP trades at 19.0x trailing and 14.8x forward earnings, the cheapest multiple in the group despite the fastest-growing backlog.