DK Street Journal

AI-Boom Chip and Software Stocks Retreat in Rough Proportion to How Far They Ran

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Sonnet 5 · Writing Sonnet 5 · Prompt v1.1

A band of chip, optical-component and communications-software stocks that led the market's rally over the past year — some up 250% to 850% — have given back 20% to 47% in the past 30 days, while previously lagging IT-services and identity-security names bounced. Guidance and backlog held up at most of the hardware leaders, but Corning and Accenture both cut forecasts, showing the pullback is a mix of position-unwinding and two real fundamental cracks, not one single story.

MUMXLMTSIGLWCLSJBLFLEXACNOKTASAILTWLOAAOIWOLFBANDEPAMQCOMPLABSANMPLXSBHEMRAMGDYNGLOBWITGIBBB
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
MUMicron TechnologyMemory (DRAM/NAND)🟢 Cont. Bull−16.4%+664.8%
MXLMaxLinearRF & Wireless🟢 Cont. Bull−30.5%+335.9%
MTSIMACOM Technology SolutionsRF & Wireless🟢 Cont. Bull−22.1%+82.3%
GLWCorningDisplay & Optical Materials🟢 Cont. Bull−29.0%+119.8%
CLSCelesticaElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull−5.4%+64.5%
JBLJabilElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull−6.9%+41.9%
FLEXFlexElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull−18.0%+123.3%
ACNAccentureEnterprise Consulting & Systems Integration🔴 Cont. Bear+22.6%−34.6%
OKTAOktaIdentity & Access Management🌱 Emerging Bull−2.1%+48.9%
SAILSailPointIdentity & Access Management🌱 Emerging Bull+10.6%−14.9%
TWLOTwilioCommunications & Messaging Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull−5.8%+57.2%
AAOIApplied OptoelectronicsRF & Wireless🟢 Cont. Bull−14.4%+376.0%
WOLFWolfspeedDiscrete & Power🌱 Emerging Bull−40.2%+6.9%
BANDBandwidthCommunications & Messaging Platforms🌱 Emerging Bull−35.5%+187.2%
EPAMEPAM SystemsEnterprise Consulting & Systems Integration🔴 Cont. Bear+21.5%−31.1%
QCOMQUALCOMM IncorporatedRF & Wireless🟢 Cont. Bull−20.1%+2.8%
PLABPhotronicsDiscrete & Power⚠️ Emerging Bear+3.7%+51.8%
SANMSanminaElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull−14.7%+59.0%
PLXSPlexusElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull−8.7%+93.9%
BHEBenchmark ElectronicsElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull−6.8%+103.8%
MRAMEverspin TechnologiesMemory (DRAM/NAND)🟢 Cont. Bull−25.9%+136.6%
GDYNGrid DynamicsEnterprise Consulting & Systems Integration🔴 Cont. Bear+16.4%−14.7%
GLOBGlobantEnterprise Consulting & Systems Integration🔴 Cont. Bear+18.3%−55.4%
WITWiproEnterprise Consulting & Systems Integration🔴 Cont. Bear+7.6%−25.8%
GIBCGIEnterprise Consulting & Systems Integration🔴 Cont. Bear+10.2%−24.3%
BBBlackBerryIdentity & Access Management🌱 Emerging Bull−26.6%+121.6%

12-month price & trend

MU
Micron Technology
823
−51.63 (−5.90%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MU 12-month price
Memory (DRAM/NAND)
MXL
MaxLinear
66.48
−0.34 (−0.51%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MXL 12-month price
RF & Wireless
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions
255
+3.76 (+1.49%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MTSI 12-month price
RF & Wireless
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
MU$929.5B18.4x11.2x10.3x7.2x14.2x9.9x20.3x2.8%
MXL$6.0Bn/m39.7x10.6x8.3x18.5x14.5xn/m0.1%
MTSI$19.5B107.9x50.9x18.2x15.5x32.2x27.4x70.7x0.8%
GLW
Corning
138
+3.03 (+2.24%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GLW 12-month price
Display & Optical Materials
CLS
Celestica
331
−21.15 (−6.00%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CLS 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
JBL
Jabil
315
+6.53 (+2.12%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
JBL 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
GLW$119.0B62.6x42.5x7.0x6.2x19.3x17.1x35.9x2.0%
CLS$38.1B34.1x29.1x2.4x1.9x20.7x16.4x25.5x1.4%
JBL$33.0B38.9x24.7x1.0x0.9x10.8x9.8x16.7x4.6%
FLEX
Flex
114
+1.84 (+1.64%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
FLEX 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
ACN
Accenture
166
+2.63 (+1.61%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ACN 12-month price
Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration
OKTA
Okta
145
+3.54 (+2.49%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
OKTA 12-month price
Identity & Access Management
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
FLEX$41.7B43.9x24.2x1.4x1.2x14.8x12.7x20.8x2.6%
ACN$101.5B13.1x12.0x1.4x1.4x4.4x4.4x7.9x12.4%
OKTA$24.2B103.9x37.8x8.1x7.6x10.5x9.8x66.2x3.7%
SAIL
SailPoint
17.53
+0.76 (+4.53%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SAIL 12-month price
Identity & Access Management
TWLO
Twilio
197
−0.35 (−0.18%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TWLO 12-month price
Communications & Messaging Platforms
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics
106
+11.30 (+11.98%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
AAOI 12-month price
RF & Wireless
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
SAIL$9.9Bn/m8.9x13.4x757.3x1.9%
TWLO$29.9B289.7x34.5x5.6x5.1x11.5x10.5x97.9x3.3%
AAOI$8.5Bn/m102.2x16.7x8.1x57.8x28.0xn/m-2.8%
WOLF
Wolfspeed
23.62
−0.17 (−0.71%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WOLF 12-month price
Discrete & Power
BAND
Bandwidth
39.14
+0.33 (+0.86%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BAND 12-month price
Communications & Messaging Platforms
EPAM
EPAM Systems
106
+1.90 (+1.83%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
EPAM 12-month price
Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
WOLF$1.2Bn/m1.7x1.9xn/m-61.1%
BAND$1.3B593.9x22.4x1.5x1.4x4.0x3.8x5.8%
EPAM$5.5B15.1x8.1x1.0x1.0x3.5x3.5x7.0x9.9%
QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
149
+1.40 (+0.95%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
QCOM 12-month price
RF & Wireless
PLAB
Photronics
30.29
+0.71 (+2.40%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
PLAB 12-month price
Discrete & Power
SANM
Sanmina
186
+2.08 (+1.13%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SANM 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
QCOM$156.5B17.0x14.0x3.6x3.6x6.6x6.6x12.4x6.7%
PLAB$1.8B11.1x16.3x2.1x2.1x6.2x6.2x4.0x5.4%
SANM$9.9B32.6x15.3x0.8x0.7x8.9x7.8x15.8x10.3%
PLXS
Plexus
251
+9.35 (+3.86%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
PLXS 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
BHE
Benchmark Electronics
79.77
+0.35 (+0.44%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BHE 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
MRAM
Everspin Technologies
14.53
+0.07 (+0.48%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MRAM 12-month price
Memory (DRAM/NAND)
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
PLXS$6.7B36.3x29.3x1.5x1.4x14.9x13.9x27.0x0.9%
BHE$2.9B53.9x27.0x1.0x1.0x9.8x9.8x19.8x5.4%
MRAM$340.7M6.0x4.9x11.5x9.4x87.9x-0.3%
GDYN
Grid Dynamics
6.89
−0.17 (−2.41%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GDYN 12-month price
Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration
GLOB
Globant
36.60
+0.21 (+0.58%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GLOB 12-month price
Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration
WIT
Wipro
1.98
+0.03 (+1.54%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WIT 12-month price
Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
GDYN$559.0M250.5x15.7x1.3x1.3x3.7x3.7x11.5x2.9%
GLOB$1.6B14.7x5.9x0.6x0.6x1.8x1.8x5.4x19.2%
WIT$19.6B14.9x0.2x2.0x0.0x6.9xn/m9.9x7.6%
GIB
CGI
73.15
−0.09 (−0.12%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GIB 12-month price
Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration
BB
BlackBerry
8.35
−0.15 (−1.71%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BB 12-month price
Identity & Access Management
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
GIB$15.6B12.7x8.0x1.3x0.9x6.4x4.4x8.5x11.1%
BB$4.9B82.5x43.4x8.4x7.9x10.9x10.2x56.9x1.3%

Valuation & fundamentals

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
MURevenue+248.0%+92.8%+11.4%
EPS+804.9%+111.2%+7.9%
MXLRevenue+55.6%+29.7%+18.5%
EPS+479.6%+54.2%+19.7%
MTSIRevenue+30.6%+26.8%+16.3%
EPS+44.9%+37.9%+21.7%
GLWRevenue+17.6%+18.6%+20.7%
EPS+29.1%+32.1%+36.1%
CLSRevenue+67.0%+69.3%+32.3%
EPS+90.2%+74.7%+34.3%
JBLRevenue+20.2%+21.2%+12.1%
EPS+35.9%+31.0%+20.3%
FLEXRevenue+6.8%+26.3%+30.0%
EPS+24.2%+44.7%+51.0%
ACNRevenue+6.0%+4.1%+5.3%
EPS+7.6%+5.9%+7.3%
OKTARevenue+12.0%+10.0%+9.5%
EPS+24.3%+11.7%+10.8%
TWLORevenue+16.0%+10.1%+10.4%
EPS+19.1%+16.3%+15.7%
AAOIRevenue+129.8%+169.3%+48.7%
EPS−417.3%+454.2%+102.6%
WOLFRevenue+0.7%−14.8%+24.1%
EPS+275.2%−30.1%−11.8%
BANDRevenue+20.0%+4.0%+19.3%
EPS+22.0%+8.3%+36.1%
EPAMRevenue+5.2%+5.8%+6.7%
EPS+14.2%+8.8%+9.3%
QCOMRevenue−1.3%+4.2%+15.1%
EPS−10.8%−2.6%+26.8%
PLABRevenue+2.5%+4.5%+7.1%
EPS−1.1%+8.6%+8.4%
SANMRevenue+74.9%+15.8%+11.8%
EPS+103.4%+15.2%+12.7%
PLXSRevenue+20.8%+13.8%+9.0%
EPS+19.5%+15.6%+12.0%
BHERevenue+13.3%+7.8%
EPS+26.7%+13.0%
MRAMRevenue+26.8%+12.4%+8.2%
EPS−140.0%+1266.7%+97.6%
GDYNRevenue+6.5%+9.2%+10.6%
EPS+11.3%+17.7%+9.6%
GLOBRevenue+1.0%+4.5%+5.3%
EPS+1.6%+6.1%+7.4%
WITRevenue+5.4%+4.3%+2.5%
EPS+4.6%+2.9%+3.7%
GIBRevenue+5.3%+2.6%+2.6%
EPS+9.7%+9.2%+8.0%
BBRevenue+0.2%+15.1%+10.4%
EPS+1183.3%+29.8%+20.2%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Investors who piled into the most successful artificial-intelligence-adjacent stocks over the past year have spent the last month selling them, and the size of the sell-off tracks the size of the earlier rally almost name for name. Memory-chip maker Micron, radio-frequency component supplier MaxLinear, and glass-and-fiber manufacturer Corning — all among the biggest winners of the past twelve months — have each fallen 20% to 40% since late June. Meanwhile stocks that lagged badly over the same period, including IT-consulting firms and identity-security software vendors, have risen 6% to 27% in the last 30 days. That symmetry points to investors rotating out of crowded winners rather than a wave of bad news — except at two companies where guidance actually did deteriorate.

The names at the center of this are Micron (MU), which makes DRAM and NAND memory chips used in AI servers; MaxLinear (MXL), which makes radio-frequency and data-center connectivity chips; MACOM Technology (MTSI), a maker of high-speed optical and RF components for data centers; Corning (GLW), which supplies optical fiber and specialty glass to telecom and data-center customers; contract electronics assemblers Celestica (CLS), Jabil (JBL) and Flex (FLEX), which build servers and networking gear for cloud customers; Accenture (ACN), the largest IT-consulting and systems-integration firm; identity-security software vendors Okta (OKTA) and SailPoint (SAIL); cloud-communications software provider Twilio (TWLO); optical-networking equipment maker Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI); silicon-carbide chipmaker Wolfspeed (WOLF); cloud-communications platform Bandwidth (BAND); and IT-services firm EPAM Systems (EPAM).

At the hardware leaders, the business kept accelerating even as the stock fell. Micron's fiscal third-quarter revenue hit a record $41.5 billion, up 74% from the prior quarter, with gross margin expanding to nearly 85% and management saying DRAM and NAND supply will trail demand into 2027 on AI-driven demand. MACOM booked a record 1.3-times book-to-bill ratio with backlog still building. Celestica, Jabil and Flex all raised AI and data-center revenue guidance in their most recent quarters, and MaxLinear raised its 2026 optical data-center revenue outlook to $210-$230 million even after a one-off operating loss. None of that squares with a 20%-to-40% share-price decline on fundamentals alone — it looks like a crowded trade unwinding after chip stocks logged an 80% first-half rally before shedding more than $1 trillion in value in a single week in late July, alongside a broader wobble after the largest cloud providers raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to roughly $700 billion combined and investors reacted by questioning the payoff rather than the spending itself.

Two names break that pattern. Corning fell about 15% on July 28 after issuing a third-quarter sales forecast below Wall Street's estimate, tied to the pace of building new optical-fiber production lines for data centers — a real, if modest, guidance miss, not pure rotation. Accenture cut its full-year revenue growth guidance to 3%-4% from 3%-5% and reported bookings down 2%-3% year over year, citing weak US federal spending — a genuine deterioration that sits oddly next to Accenture's own peers, which merely lagged the market rather than falling on fresh bad news and have since bounced.

The bounce side is also not one story. Okta's revenue grew 12% last quarter, a continued deceleration from the mid-teens pace of prior years, even as free cash flow stayed strong at $211 million — a real business-maturation trend, not just sentiment. SailPoint, by contrast, grew revenue 20% and SaaS annual recurring revenue 38%, crossing $1 billion in total ARR, but is still posting losses. Twilio's organic revenue growth accelerated to 20%, its best pace in three years, with guidance raised twice in 2026.

On the tape, the pattern is directional but not perfectly linear: Micron's 30-day drawdown (-20%) is smaller than MaxLinear's (-40%) despite a far bigger prior-year gain, and Wolfspeed's -47% drawdown reflects a distressed, post-restructuring share count more than crowding. Database records show a uniform strong-bull-to-mild-bull downgrade stamped July 31 across Micron, MaxLinear, MACOM, Corning, Celestica, Jabil, Flex, Applied Optoelectronics and several smaller peers, while Accenture alone moved to a strong-bear reading — consistent with its being the one name in the group facing an actual guidance cut rather than a crowded-trade exit.

On valuation, the hardware leaders still carry cycle-sensitive multiples: Celestica, Jabil and Flex trade at trailing price-to-earnings ratios of roughly 40x-60x, and Micron's ~12x forward earnings looks inexpensive only if AI-driven memory pricing holds near current, historically elevated levels. Twilio's ~33x-35x forward earnings and Photronics' 11x trailing earnings sit at opposite ends of that spectrum, underscoring that the group's re-rating has room to run in either direction depending on which multiple an investor anchors to.

The setup

Where it stands — Chip and optical-hardware leaders fell 20%-47% in 30 days despite mostly intact guidance; Corning and Accenture fell on genuine guidance cuts. Would confirm — Micron, MACOM, Celestica, Jabil and Flex maintain or raise guidance again in their next quarterly reports without further share declines. Would invalidate — Book-to-bill or hyperscaler capex commentary turns down at MACOM or Micron's next print, confirming a fundamental, not technical, rollover. Watch next — Micron's fiscal Q4 FY26 report and Corning's Q3 2026 results, both due within the next 60-90 days. Valuation — Micron trades near 12x forward earnings versus a cycle-average that has ranged from single digits to over 20x across past memory cycles.

Sources (22)

Also checked against 14 price-database queries, 1 company-fundamentals read in the author's own data.

Originating hypothesis

cross segment drawdown proportional to prior gain · cross_segment: Technology > Semiconductors > RF & Wireless, Technology > Semiconductors > Memory (DRAM/NAND), Technology > Semiconductors > Discrete & Power, Technology > Hardware, Equipment & Parts > Display & Optical Materials, Technology > Hardware, Equipment & Parts > Electronic Manufacturing Services

Across this loop's entire universe sample the 30-day drawdown lines up almost perfectly with the size of the preceding 12-month gain — RF & Wireless -22.3% after +146.4%, Memory -21.2% after +400.7%, Communications & Messaging -20.5% after +122.3%, Display & Optical Materials -18.6% after +97.2%, Discrete & Power -14.6% after +456.5%, Electronic Manufacturing Services -10.1% after +81.1%, Identity & Access Management only -8.0% after +50.7%, and Enterprise Consulting & Systems Integration actually +17.6% after a -29.1% year — a monotonic ladder that is the signature of a mechanical momentum/crowding unwind rather than eight separate fundamental stories, and the band data reinforces it: the downgrades are near-universally strongly bullish → mildly bullish (GLW, MU, MXL, MTSI, AAOI, FLEX, JBL, SANM, PLXS, BHE, CLS, WOLF, MRAM) rather than breaks into bear bands, all stamped with the same 2026-07-31 date, while every genuine bear-band exit in the snapshot (EPAM, GDYN, GLOB, WIT, GIB to neutral; SAIL, OKTA, BB to strongly bullish) sits on the low-momentum side of the ladder — so the question worth testing is whether the de-rating is proportional to prior gain (de-grossing, still-intact fundamentals, and therefore an emerging entry window in the cohorts whose order books and guidance never deteriorated) or proportional to actual fundamental deterioration (decelerating book-to-bill, softening hyperscaler capex commentary, distributor inventory build), and critically how much of each cohort's 12-month gain was earnings versus multiple expansion — measuring forward EV/sales, EV/EBIT, gross margin trend and free-cash-flow yield for the leaders of each segment against their own five- to ten-year ranges to establish where price sits relative to pre-2025 valuation floors, i.e. how much downside is still embedded on the hardware side and whether the services and identity bounce has already spent its discount from CURRENT prices.