What happened

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, and ether, the second-largest and the native token of the Ethereum network, both moved from a steep downtrend to a milder one on the same two time horizons this week — the trailing 30 days and the trailing 180 days — a genuine multi-month improvement after both coins fell roughly 44-46% over the past year. But the three companies whose stock prices are supposed to track crypto most closely — Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), the software firm that converted its balance sheet into the world's largest corporate bitcoin hoard; BitMine Immersion Technologies, a Las Vegas company built around the largest corporate stash of ether; and Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange — all got worse on the three-month and one-year charts over that same stretch. The gap is not tape noise. Each company's own numbers explain why its stock is diverging from the coin it is supposed to track.

The coins: stabilizing, not confirmed

Over the past 90 days bitcoin fell about 19%, and both bitcoin and ether are down roughly 44-46% over the full year. That drawdown has left bitcoin trading above its "realized price" — the average cost basis of every coin ever moved on-chain — near $53,000-$55,000, but still below the short-term-holder cost basis of roughly $69,000-$72,000 and the longer-run "true market mean" of about $76,000-$79,000. That is consistent with a market that has stopped falling but has not yet drawn in fresh buyers. Confirming that, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in just $205 million in July, the smallest monthly haul on record, after $2.43 billion and $4.52 billion left the funds in May and June. The Federal Reserve has also held rates at 3.5%-3.75% since late 2025 with fewer cuts priced for the rest of 2026 than bulls expected, a headwind that has pushed bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 up to 0.6-0.8 — a macro drag shared by coins and equities alike, which is part of why the equities have not simply mirrored the coins' improvement.

The equities: a capital-structure story, not a coin-price story

Strategy's stock fell 47% over the past 90 days and 75% over the past year — far worse than bitcoin's 19% and 44% declines over the same windows — and the reason sits on its balance sheet, not in the bitcoin market. The company's "mNAV," the ratio of its market value to the value of its bitcoin holdings, has compressed from a 2.6x-2.8x premium at the 2024 peak to roughly 1.08x-1.16x, briefly dipping below 1.0x in late June — meaning the market now values the company at or below the coins it holds. That premium collapse forced Strategy to sell 3,588 bitcoins in June, its first sale since 2022, to help fund the roughly $876 million annual dividend on its preferred stock, a cash obligation that exists regardless of where bitcoin trades. A separate risk sits ahead: a $1.01 billion convertible note lets holders demand repayment in September 2027 if the stock stays below the conversion price. One tail risk did clear, however — MSCI confirmed it will keep Strategy in its major indices, averting a forced sale by passive funds.

BitMine shows the same mechanism. Its own "realized mNAV" sat at 0.84 in early July — a 16% discount to the value of its ether holdings, not a premium, after shares outstanding grew 149% over the past year through continuous stock sales. The company's cost basis in its ether — $19.05 billion — now exceeds the $10.86 billion fair value of those coins, an unrealized loss documented in its own disclosures. Staking revenue reached $45.7 million in its latest quarter, 98% of total sales, but the company still posted an $83.6 million net loss, and its 30-day bounce (+22%) looks more like a dead-cat rally off a beaten-down base than a reversal.

Coinbase is the one name in this group that is not simply a leveraged bet on coin prices, and its second quarter shows why that distinction matters less than hoped: revenue fell to $1.2 billion from $1.5 billion a year earlier and the company posted a $359 million net loss, with both transaction revenue and subscription/services revenue — the fee-light, steadier business Coinbase has spent years building — down year over year. Average USDC balances held on the platform hit an all-time high of $20 billion, yet interest income from that stablecoin fell $17 million as rates declined — proof the business has its own rate sensitivity, but not one working in its favor right now. Trading market share hit a record 10.3% in the quarter, yet that share gain did not translate into revenue growth.

Verdict

On valuation, Strategy trades around 75x sales and BitMine around 170x trailing sales (falling to roughly 79x on forward estimates) — multiples that make sense only through the mNAV lens for this group, and both are now compressed versus their own multi-quarter ranges. That compression is CONFIRMS: it traces to real dilution, unrealized treasury losses and cash-dividend obligations, not simply to falling coin prices — Strategy's mNAV fell from 2.6x-2.8x toward parity even as bitcoin itself only round-tripped from a 2025 peak. Whether spot crypto is genuinely bottoming is INCONCLUSIVE: the band improvement is real, but ETF flows have not turned and bitcoin remains below the cost-basis levels associated with confirmed demand-led recoveries.

On the tape, bitcoin and ether both moved from a steep downtrend to a milder one on both the 30-day and 180-day views, while Strategy, BitMine and Coinbase all slid from a milder downtrend to a steep one on both the 90-day and 365-day views — the five-name split is consistent across every proxy in the group, not an artifact of one stock.

The setup

Where it stands — Bitcoin and ether have improved to a milder downtrend while Strategy, BitMine and Coinbase have all worsened to a steep one. Would confirm — Strategy's mNAV holds above 1.0x and monthly spot bitcoin ETF net flows turn positive for two consecutive months. Would invalidate — Bitcoin re-enters a steep downtrend on the 30-day view or BitMine's realized mNAV falls further below 0.84. Watch next — Strategy's next quarterly preferred-dividend payment and BitMine's ETH-per-share count at its next 10-Q filing. Valuation — Strategy trades near 75x trailing sales and BitMine near 170x trailing/79x forward sales, both below their own multi-quarter mNAV ranges.