Two buckets, two different stories

Six of the nine names in the "SAAS Tier 2 / Strong Infrastructure Moats" bucket — TWLO, DT, FROG, NTNX, IOT and VEEV — have actually crossed from bear into bull trend-bands, with five of those crossings clustering between mid-May and early July, well ahead of the late-July market-wide software rotation. Twilio has held a strongly bullish band since mid-April. These moves track real earnings: Nutanix posted ARR growth of 15% year-over-year and raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance; JFrog grew revenue 26% year-over-year with cloud revenue up 50% and now over half the mix, and raised full-year guidance alongside a new Nvidia AI-supply-chain partnership; and Twilio lifted FY26 growth guidance to 14-15% on its consumption-based 'User + Usage' pricing shift, though that same report flags the stock trading roughly 59% above SaaS-sector average P/E. Not every Tier 2 name is participating: TEAM actually backslid into strongly bearish despite a 26% 30-day pop, BILL only softened from strongly bearish to mildly bearish without exiting, and CRM has sat in strongly bearish continuously since January despite its Agentforce ARR narrative.

The back-office bucket's rally looks thinner

The "TechCollapse: Back-Office/Workflow" bucket's roughly +19% 30-day gain is concentrated almost entirely in the week of July 22-28, when enterprise software staged a coordinated rebound — Salesforce up 7%, ServiceNow up 8%, and Workday up 10% — explicitly framed by press coverage as capital rotating out of chip stocks into an "AI monetization" software trade rather than company-specific news, part of a bull case built partly on Salesforce's Agentforce ARR reaching $1.2 billion, up 205% year-over-year. Only ADP and PAYC have actually crossed into bull bands, and both did so in just the past two to three weeks. ServiceNow is the clearest counter-case: it beat and raised guidance on July 22 with subscription revenue up 24.5% and cRPO up 21% — yet its trend-band stayed strongly bearish through July 28. INTU, WDAY, DOCU, MNDY and BILL remain stuck in bear bands despite double-digit bounces.

What's next

Sector-wide, public SaaS EV/NTM-sales multiples have already re-rated roughly 90% off the 2023 trough to around 8.5x, undercutting a blanket "still at trough multiples" case, though legacy slow-growers remain cheap. PE appetite for sub-scale software persists — Dayforce, OneStream and Clearwater Analytics all closed take-privates in 2026 — but none touch these tickers yet. ADP reports July 29, while Workday and Intuit both report around August 20 — the next real tests of whether back-office SaaS follows infrastructure moats out of its bear bands, or stays a rotation-driven bounce.