Getty and Shutterstock: a merger break, not a gradual AI erosion
Prompt v1.0
GETY (-50.8%) and SSTK (-59.6%) over three months are down together, but the driver is a dateable corporate sequence — a round-tripped OpenAI display deal, then the collapse of the $3.7bn merger — not slow gen-AI substitution. ALOY is a rare-earth company and does not belong in the cohort.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend · 13mo | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GETY | Getty Images | Internet Content & Information | 🔴 Cont. Bear | −48.9% | −73.9% |
SSTK | Shutterstock | Media & Content Distribution | 🔴 Cont. Bear | −47.8% | −60.7% |
ALOY | REalloys | Rare Earth Elements | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −42.4% | +7.5% |
ADBE | Adobe | Design & Content Creation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +5.8% | −40.9% |
FIG | Figma | Design & Content Creation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +20.2% | −80.1% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GETY | $128.8M | n/m | 13.4x | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.2x | 0.2x | 11.7x | -65.1% |
SSTK | $198.8M | n/m | — | 0.2x | 0.3x | 0.4x | 0.4x | n/m | 44.7% |
ALOY | $945.3M | n/m | — | 333.4x | 269.2x | 575.0x | 464.3x | n/m | -2.9% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADBE | $101.0B | 14.5x | 10.4x | 4.0x | 3.8x | 4.5x | 4.3x | 10.4x | 10.5% |
FIG | $12.7B | n/m | 90.8x | 9.9x | 8.6x | 12.5x | 10.9x | n/m | 1.8% |
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GETY | Revenue | +1.8% | +0.9% | +3.8% |
| EPS | −112.1% | +126.0% | +185.7% | |
SSTK | Revenue | −23.3% | −8.0% | −4.9% |
| EPS | −145.9% | −148.0% | +10.2% | |
ALOY | Revenue | +133.2% | +822.1% | +213.4% |
| EPS | −13.2% | −90.4% | −144.2% | |
ADBE | Revenue | +12.0% | +9.1% | +8.8% |
| EPS | +17.2% | +12.7% | +14.2% | |
FIG | Revenue | +40.5% | +23.8% | +24.2% |
| EPS | −24.5% | +26.7% | +34.4% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
What actually happened
GETY closed at $0.4802 on 7/22, down 50.8% over three months; SSTK closed at $7.38, down 59.6%. The correlation is real, but the mechanism is event-driven and precisely datable.
First, Getty's June 21-22 multi-year, display-only OpenAI agreement — no model-training rights, terms undisclosed — spiked the stock 90% on 217.9M shares versus typical 1-3M. Legal analysts immediately flagged that the deal leaves the core IP questions open, including rollout timing and contributor economics. At $0.4802 GETY now trades 21% below its $0.605 pre-announcement close. The entire AI-licensing rally has round-tripped.
Then the merger broke. Getty abandoned the $3.7 billion Shutterstock deal after declining to divest Shutterstock's editorial business, a condition the CMA imposed because Shutterstock is one of Getty's only significant editorial rivals. SSTK fell 29.0% in one session on 7/1 to an all-time low, now positioned as a standalone business, with its cash-election floor gone.
The balance sheet, not the P&L
Getty's operations are roughly flat: Q1'26 revenue of $226.6M, +1.1% YoY, EBITDA $61.6M, FY guidance reaffirmed near $968M — not a revenue collapse. The re-rating is financial. Termination triggered a special mandatory redemption of the 10.500% secured notes against ~$2.0bn of debt; S&P cut Getty to CCC+ with distressed-restructuring language, after an April downgrade on liquidity. A NYSE sub-$1 cure period lapses around mid-September. With ~$205M equity value on ~$2.1bn EV (~7.3x guided EBITDA), the equity is ~10% of the capital structure — a stub on refinancing. Q2 lands August 10.
Shutterstock's problem is operating, not solvency: ~$300M debt against $162.5M cash, but Q1 revenue -18% with the AI Data/Distribution line -47% and subscribers down to 993k from 1,079k. It suspended the dividend on 7/20-22, withheld FY26 guidance, and is repackaging Unlimited Downloads globally.
Cohort discipline
Breadth is thin. Within the Desk's Creative & Content group, ADBE is -14.7% and FIG +12.0%. ALOY is REalloys, a rare-earth magnet company — a +110% then -58% momentum round-trip, unrelated. Sell-side is stale: GETY's ~$3.93 median target was trimmed to $3.50 at Benchmark against a $0.48 tape.